Marty Millner
Real estate statistics in Yardley, Newtown, Upper Makefield Township, Lower Makefield Township & Bucks County
I have not done this in a number of posts, but I wanted to take a very detailed look at market statistics, through the end of November, in some of the markets that I serve.
In virtually all of the markets in which I work in Bucks County, the pace of 2009 year to date units has continued to improve. For example, in all of Bucks County, the number of single family homes this November, was 79% higher than November of 2008.
Some specific examples of that are pretty impressive. Sales in Lower Makefield Township, were 257% this November than a year ago; Newtown was up 171%; Upper Makefield was up 100%; Solebury was up 200%; Buckingham up by 111%; Northampton up 61%; Middletown up 65%. I don’t think that it was a coincidence, that the original, first time home buyer tax credit, expired on November 30th, and we saw such an increase in the number of transactions this November. Clearly the tax credit had an effect.
In virtually all of our markets, the year to date units closed, has improved over the past 6 or 7 months. Please see the accompanying graphs, which plot the general improvement.
Inventory of homes for sale as of the end of November 2009, is down sequentially from October 2009, in virtually every market in Bucks County. Compared with November of 2008, inventory unit levels are down in all of Bucks County, by 17%. Newtown is down 6%, Upper Makefield down 18%, Northampton is flat, while inventory in Lower Makefield Township, is actually 5% higher at the end of November 2009, as compared with November 2008. In terms of months of inventory, most markets are still considered, “buyers markets”. There are a few exceptions. In Falls Township, there is a 4.7 month inventory supply, and in Newtown, 5.7 months. Basically, if inventory is between 4 to 6 months, we consider that a balanced market. In most of our markets, there is a supply of inventory of 9 months, or more.
In most of our Bucks County markets, the average asking price of homes, is still trending lower. Lower Makefield Township is 11% lower for the year; Newtown is 4% lower; Upper Makefield is 8% lower and Solebury is 7% lower than a year ago.
How about discounts from the asking price? That is a question virtually every seller and buyer asks me. The answer is, that overall, buyers are now achieving approximately 8 to 9% discounts from the asking price. This is measured from the opening asking price of the most current listing contract.
So what do all of these stats mean? To me, it means that through November of 2009, there has been more real estate activity, in terms of units. I think that the first time home buyer tax credit, clearly encouraged some people to buy, and some of those sellers, became buyers, as well. Beccause of the economy, I believe we are still in a buyers market, but I do see signs that we may have reached the bottom. Inventory is generally lower, and I know that with buyers I am working with, we don’t find as many choices, as we saw several months ago. That may change, as we move into the year, as I believe that people will be getting homes on the market earlier this year, to take advantage of the new tax credit, which requires that a contract be in place by April 30th, and closing occur by June 30th.
We track these statistics every month, so if you would like more detailed information, please contact me.
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