What does a Yardley, Pa., Bucks County real estate agent think about recent, national sales data?
I recently was asked by a friend of mine, to refer her to an agent in an area of New Jersey, that I don’t cover. My friend’s sister is a first time home buyer, a group that I love working with, and was intersted in buying a home in an area out of my normal market coverage.
I referred her to a great agent, an offer was made, which was ultimately accepted by the seller.
Just after her offer was accepted, the July sales figures for the national real estate market were released.
My friend emailed me, and asked my thoughts about whether it was appropriate for her sister to be buying a house, given the recent news.
Here was my answer to her.
I will chime in with my thoughts about the real estate market. I am not able to comment specifically on the house your sister is buying, because I don’t know that market. I do trust your sisters realtor’s judgment and knowledge, though.
The recent housing market stats was not at all unexpected. Everyone knew that the sales activity would plummet following the expiration of the tax credit. We saw the same thing when it originally expired in November. Many experts felt that the tax credit basically just accelerated sales activity, so that people ended up buying sooner than they would have otherwise bought.
I can tell you that in Lower Makefield Township, unit sales are ahead of last year, as of the end of July, by 43.5%, which is incredible. Bucks County as a whole, is up by more than 11%, in the number of units that have sold through the end of July.
If you just compare the number of houses that have sold in Lower Makefield in July of 2009, compared with July of 2010, there was a sharp decline, which is what the national report indicated. 34 homes sold in Lower Makefield in July, last year, compared with 24 in July this year. Again, using Lower Makefield as an example, comparing what happened in June 2010, with June 2009, 57 homes sold this June, compared with 31 last June.
So what does all that mean? Well, there is no question that we are still in the midst of a very strong, buyers market. We consider a market to be balanced when there is about a 6 month supply of houses. In our area, although it varies by community, most areas have a minimum of 9 months or more of houses on the market. As a generalization, in Bucks County, buyers are achieving a discount of around 7% off of the asking price. However, in our area, I have seen recent examples of homes that attracted multiple offers, and actually sold higher than their asking price, even in the current market. I was involved with a transaction on a short sale, where there were actually 5 offers, and the house ended up selling for thousands of dollars over the banks asking price.
I mention that, because in the case of the house that your sister is buying, if the bank has priced the property very competitively, then it is not totally out of the question to pay the asking price. That’s where I would defer to the expert who really knows the market in Flemington. In addition, your sister’s lender will require a formal appraisal. They are tougher than ever, right now, and if the house does not appraise for at least the sale price, she will have the right to not buy the house. I can explain all of that, if you are not familiar with how that works.
I realize that given the current market, every buyer worries about whether it makes any sense to buy right now. There was a great article in either the New York Times or Wall Street Journal yesterday, and I apologize because I can’t recall which paper I read it in, that talked about the fact that buyers are getting back to much more traditional reasons for buying homes. The concept of having a house become a wildly appreciating asset, is a relatively new thought and concept. People seem to be going back to the idea that you buy a house because its where you will be comfortable, and where you wish to live, etc. I also think its worth noting that although there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the real estate market, interest rates are virtually at all time lows. It is hard for me to envision any scenario where rates can drop much lower. That means that from a cash management perspective, even if values dropped somewhat in the short term, if rates increase, your probably better off buying now, when rates are as low as they are.
Although I don’t have a crystal ball, my own belief is that we are closer to the bottom than we have been in a while. It is also true that the entire corridor between Philly and New York, has still held up much better than many other parts of the country. 2 of my 3 kids have bought houses in the past 6 months or so, and if I didn’t think it was an appropriate time, I certainly would have told them.
So, the bottom line is, no one knows for sure what is going to happen in the real estate market. Yardley, Newtown, and the rest of Bucks County, is a great place to live. There are a lot more options if you are looking to buy than rent. I think that sellers are gradually becoming more realistic, and homes that are priced correctly, still sell.
If you are buying a house becuase it fits your lifestyle, in terms of size, location and community, as I told my kids, I would say, go for it!
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Upper Makefield real estate, July, 2010
Whats happening in the real estate market, specific to Upper Makefield Township, in Bucks County, through the end of July, 2010.
Lets look at some numbers.
Inventory of homes on the market in Upper Makefield Township.
- Homes for sale, end of July, 2010 141
- Homes for sale, end of July, 2009 134
- Homes for sale, end of June, 2010 138
Inventory of homes on the market, is up by 5.2% from last year at the same time, and up just slightly from the end of June.
Average price of homes on the market in Upper Makefield Township
- The average price of a house for sale in Upper Makefield Township, at the end of July, 2010 was $1.27 million.
- The average price of a house for sale in Upper Makefield Township, at the end of July, 2009 was $1.39 million.
- This represents a reduction in the average price of a home on the market of 1.9%.
What is amazing about that statistic, is that the average price of a house that has sold in Upper Makefield, as of the end of July this year, was $849,000. This represents an enormous difference. Think about that. The average asking price is $1.27 million, but the average selling price is $849,000. The reason for this, is that there are a great number of houses on the market in Upper Makefield, that are more than a million dollars. Relative to the number of homes that actually sell, the inventory of houses on the market that are above a million, actually skew the average asking price. Those homes, tend to remain on the market, which also skews the average days on the market, and are much more difficult to sell, than more modestly priced homes. The same is essentially true in every community, in that the most expensive range of homes in any community, tend to be the most challenging to sell.
Real estate sales volume in Upper Makefield Township.
- Homes sold in Upper Makefield Township as of the end of July, 2010 61 at 90% of the asking price.
- Homes sold in Upper Makefield Township as of the end of July, 2009 38 at 87% of the asking price.
This represents an incredible 60.5% increase in unit volume over a year ago. In addition, although buyers are still achieving, on average 10% off the asking price, that number compared with 13% last year at the same time.
Summary of real estate market through the end of July, 2010 in Upper Makefield Township, Bucks County, Pa.
So, what does all of this mean? Inventory levels are up a bit, from last year, but unit sales are up tremendously. However, at the current sales pace, there is a 17.8 month supply of homes on the market. This compared with 22.3 months last year, at the same time, so conditions would appear to be improving a bit. However, please keep in mind, that we consider the market to be balanced between buyers and sellers, when the inventory level approaches 6 months. Clearly there is a long way to go, before we get back to balanced market conditions.
In addition, almost half of the homes currently on the market (67 of 141 to be exact) are priced about $1 million. That represents a whopping 37 month supply of houses above a million, at the current sales pace. It should be pretty clear, especially in the higher priced market, that homes absolutely must be priced correctly, based on current market conditions, in order to sell. It has never been more important, if you are selling, to price correctly, and market as aggressively as possible.
If you would like to know what homes in your neighborhood are selling for, please ask me for my neighborhood sales report. You can email me, and I will forward the report immediately.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Yardley real estate in August, 2010.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UM2CHmPZi50[/youtube]
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |A detailed look at the Bucks County real estate market for July 2010
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I Wanted to provide a detailed look at the Bucks County real estate market, in general, and some specifics for local markets that I cover. These statistics are taken directly from Coldwell Banker Hearthside Realtors market research derived from Trend MLS data.
Average For all of Bucks County,
note the following for units that have sold as of the end of July, 2010
2009 2010
2554 2845 +11.4%
Houses in Inventory for Bucks County as of end of July, 2010
4593 4634 Up less than 1%
Average price of a house in inventory for Bucks County:
$495,000 487,000 -1.7%
Average sold price:
$329,000 342,000 +3.9%
Countywide discount from the asking price is 8%
For the entire County, the average days on the market for a home, is 86.
It is interesting to note, the huge difference between the average price of a home in inventory, and the average price of a house that actually sells. Currently in Bucks County, the difference is 487,000, which is the average price of a home in inventory, compared with 342,000 which is the average price of a house that has sold.
The reason for this, and it is true within individual communities, is that the houses that are the most expensive in any area, skew the average price of homes on the market, and are typically the most difficult to sell.
We see examples of this in individual municipalities as well.
Lets look at real estate specifics for Lower Makefield Township and Yardley, for now. Keep in mind the Bucks County wide statistics, as we look at individual markets. In future posts, I will review statistics from Newtown, Upper Makefield and other areas in which I work.
Inventory of Homes in Yardley/Lower Makefield
July 2010 223
June 2010 238
July 2009 251.
Number of homes in inventory, is down 11.2% from the previous year, and down 6.3% from June, 2010.
Average Pricing in Yardley/Lower Makefield for homes on the market.
Average price of a home for sale in July, 2010 was $520,000.
Average price of a home for sale in July 2009 was $522,000.
Asking price of homes in inventory is flat, down just 0,2% from last year.
Average Pricing in Yardley/Lower Makefield for homes sold
Average price of a house that has actually sold in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township is 414,000, as of the end of July, 2010.
The average price of a house that sold last year, was 462,000.
This is an interesting observation. The average price of a house for sale in Lower Makefield Township and Yardley, is 520,000, but the average price of what actually sells, is 414,000. This represents a large difference, and I believe what we are seeing is that the more expensive homes on the market, skew the average price of inventory, and since they don’t sell as often, they don’t have the same affect on the average price of what sells.
Unit Sales of homes in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township.
131 homes sold through the end of July, 2009 at 91% of the asking price.
188 homes sold through the end of July, 2010 at 93% of the asking price.
This represents a very impressive increase in unit sales volume of 43.5% over the previous year to date. In 2009, sales volume increased by 1.6% overe the previous year.
Please note that buyers are still achieving an average of 7% off of the asking price.
Summary
So what does all of this mean for buyers and sellers as well as home owners, in Yardley and Lower Makefield Township? Since there is still an 8.6 month inventory of homes on the market, and since buyers are still seeing pretty significant discounts from the asking prices, it is clear that factors still favor buyers in the Yardley, Lower Makefield Township area. In addition, average days on the market are up slightly, from 73 days last year, to 78 this year. Competition remains challenging. Be sure to check out the graphs and charts, that show what all of these numbers mean. The table that shows yearly appreciation is particularly intersting.
All things considered, the real estate market in Yardley , and Lower Makefield , continues to perform better than in many other parts of the country. As I mentioned, in future posts, I will look at the real estate market in Newtown, and Upper Makefield, as well as in other parts of Bucks County.
I always welcome your thoughts, comments and questions. You can reach me at 215-510-1399.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Yardley, Newtown, Bucks County Real Estate update
Newtown house inventory vs days on the market
We are definitely in the dog days of summer, here in Bucks County.
I just got back from a very nice, long weekend in Chicago.
For today’s post, lets look at a couple of charts that show inventory and average days on the market for homes in Yardley and Newtown.
What do the charts show?
Basically, in both Newtown and Yardley, the average days on the market has been trending lower, for the past 90 days.
In Yardley, the number of houses on the market seems to have peaked in early July, and is now trending lower. It will be interesting to see what happens in the fall, which contrary to what a lot of people think, is actually the second busiest real estate time of the year, after the spring market.
In Newtown, inventory appears to still be on the upward trend.
I suspect, in both Yardley and Newtown, we are seeing homes coming on the market, but there are still not a great deal of buyers. Becuase of the new listings, the average days on the market, is a bit lower. This all translates to market dynamics that still favor buyers.
Although interest rates are at unbelievably low rates, and show no signs of increasing in the near future, in my view, the pace of sales has slowed down since the spring, which is normal, for this time of the year.
Yardley homes on the market vs days on the market
So, if you are looking to sell, price your home realistically. Houses are selling, but only those that are priced competitively.
Buyers, lots of choices, and lots of competition for your dollars.
If you need an evaluation of the value of your home, please call me at 215-519-1399.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |5603 Timberly Lane, Plumstead Township, Bucks County, Pa.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0diCRwF0eU8[/youtube]
Gorgeous home in the Estates of Timberly Farms, in Plumstead Township, Bucks County, Pa. Priced at 565,000, the house is only 5 years old, and shows beautifully. Enjoy walking trails through the woods, a wonderful country feel, yet just minutes from Doylestown and all that Bucks County has to offer.
To schedule a private showing, call 215-519-1399.
Check out this house.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |