Marty Millner

Archive for the 'Market Statistics' Category

Newtown Township Real Estate, 10 year price comparison chart.

Today, I wanted to review with you, the same 10 year price comparison chart, for single family, residential homes, in Newtown Township, Bucks County, that I reviewed for Lower Makefield Township, in my last post.

I find these graphs a very easy and clear representation, of the direction prices have taken, over the past 10 years. It is pretty interesting to me, that from a price perspective, the average price of a single family home in Newtown, has only dropped about 6% from the peak, which was in 2006.

 

I also added units to this chart, and from that perspective, there has been a much more pronounced change. In 2004, there were 360 homes that sold, while in 2009, there were only 224. Although the volume has fallen substantially in Newtown Township, prices have held up extremely well.

As I have mentioned before, real estate is very, very local. We would find differences if we examine neighborhood by neighborhood, even within the same township.

As always, I welcome your thoughts and comments.

Own real estate in Lower Makefield Township, 10 year price comparison chart.

Another in a series of statistical look at the real estate market, this time in Lower Makefield Township, in Bucks County.

I love this very simple to follow chart that we put together, that shows the average price of a home in Lower Makefield, starting in 2000.   This is really easy to follow, and shows very clearly, what the price appreciation and/or depreciation, has done each year.

Looking at the graph, you can see that average prices today, are about where they were in the middle of 2004.  People actually ask me all the time, where pricing is, compared with prior years.  The graph shows that very clearly.

You can see that for folks who are in older neighborhoods, like YardleyHunt for example, who bought more than 10 years ago, values today are still considerably higher than where they were in 2000.

Hopefully this chart will provide some guidance as to exactly where real estate prices stand, compared with prior years, in Lower Makefield Township.  I will provide the same chart, for some of the other markets that I cover, like Newtown, in future posts.

As always, I welcome your thoughts and comments.

Real Estate market trends, Bucks County, Pa.

Bucks County real estate market update, January 2010.

People ask me all the time, how is the real estate market, in Yardley, Newtown and all over the Bucks County area. 

For those who know me, you know that I do take the time to do very comprehensive statistical reviews.  With that in mind, I wanted to spend a few minutes, reviewing a few market statistics, from January. 

Obviously it is too early to develop any meaningful trends for the entire year, but we can compare where we stand as of the end of January 2010, with prior years.

Here are a few points, that generally apply to the entire Bucks County area:

• For the month of January 2010, volume of sold units, was positive in most markets, county wide.
• Total Bucks County January average sold prices were actually up 7%, over a year ago.
• Total unit volume for January was 14% higher than a year ago.
• Inventory was also up sequentially from December 2009, County wide, and some areas were up and some down, from a year ago.
• In virtually every market that I track, throughout Bucks County, months of inventory still suggest a buyers market.  We consider a balanced market to exist when there is approximately 6 months of inventory.  Less, indicates sellers markets, more means conditions favorable to buyers.  Bucks County wide, there is a 9.3 month supply of inventory. 
• Lower Makefield has a 9 month supply of homes, as of the end of January.
• Pending sales was stronger in most parts of the County, at the end of January. 
• Average list prices of homes in inventory as of January 2010, in all of Bucks County, was down somewhat, from last year.  Shifting inventory pricing trends, generally correlate to improving unit sales volumes.
• Sold/List ratios in most markets, continue to show that overall, buyers are achieving approximately 9% off the original asking price.

Lower Makefield Township Results

• Inventory of homes for sale in January 2010 was 188
• Inventory of homes for sale in December 2009 was 174
• Inventory of homes for sale in January 2009 was 170.
• Unit inventory up 10.6% year over year, and up 14 homes sequentially from December 2009
• Average  price of a home for sale in January 2010 was $492,000.
• Average price of a home for sale in January 2009 was $558,000.
• List price in inventory was down 11.8%
• 14 homes sold in January 2009 at 90% of list price.
• 15 homes sold in January 2010 at 91% of list price.
• Units sales volume up 7.1% year over year, contrasted with full year 2009 unit sales volume which was up 1.6%.
• Inventory is currently at 8.8 months, which indicates that the buyers market continues. 
• Average days on the market is now 86 versus 68 last year.

I have all sorts of graphs and charts, that will show a statistical overview of every market I cover.  I will report on those areas, like Newtown, Upper Makefield Township, Newtown and Newtown Township, in future posts.  If you would like to see any of the charts or graphs, for a specific area, please let me know.

What does all of this mean for buyers and sellers?  Basically, market dynamics continue to favor buyers.  Sellers, as always, need to be realistic, if they intend to sell.  Still uncertain, as to what will happen when the tax credit expires, at the end of April.

Guess how long its taking to sell expensive homes, in Lower Makefield Township, Bucks County, Pa.

Selling houses in Yardley and Lower Makefield Township.

The single most important discussion I ever have with a seller, is the discussion about price. I always try and impress upon sellers, how absolutely critical it is, to price a home correctly.

I have also reported previously, that the market for higher priced homes, is more challenging than the market for homes priced more moderately. The reason for that, among other things, is becuase of the first time home buyer tax credit.

To drive home the point I have been making, I started with homes for sale in Lower Makefield Township, in Bucks County. I compiled a list of all homes for sale in Lower Makefield, priced from 600,000 to whatever the most expensive listings were. As you can see from the chart that follows, there are 29 homes for sale, priced between 600,000 & 1,495,000.

I charted the total number of days on the market for each home.

I eliminated any new construction, since they tend to skew the statistics because of how long new construction homes remain on the market.

What I found was, that the average days on the market of the 29 homes for sale, was 230! That is a sobering statistic, especially for a seller who is motivated, and really wants to move. If I eliminate the 3 houses that have been on the market the longest, the average days on the market, for houses priced above 600,000 in Lower Makefield Township, is 171. Still, quite a long time.

I can examine similar stats from other communities, like Upper Makefield Township and Newtown Township, but the results will be somewhat similar.

There have been a total of 46 homes that have closed, in the past 12 months, priced above 600,000 in Lower Makefield Township. This represents more than 8 months of inventory, based on the current rate of absorption.

So, the critical message to sellers, is to be as realistic as possible, in pricing your home. There are buyers, but as you can see, there are many homes that have been on the market for a long time. Price your house correctly, make sure it shows as well as possible, market it properly, and it will sell in a reasonable time frame.

I always welcome your thoughts and comments.

Real Estate Inventory trends, Yardley, Newtown, Bucks County, Pa.

I am working with a lot of buyers who want to find a home, and take advantage of the tax credit, before it expires.  As I have posted, previously, in order to qualify, you must be under contract by April 30th, and close by June 30th, 2010.

What’s intersting right now, is that it appears as though the buyers are looking earlier than usual, for a spring market, but the sellers have not quite caught on.  Check the chart below, which clearly shows that for both Yardley (19067) and Newtown (18940), inventory has very clearly, trended lower, over the past 90 days.

Yardley (19067) Newtown (18940) Single family homes inventory

As always, the real estate market in Yardley, Newtown, and all over Bucks County, is basically a function of suppy and demand.  As we know, over the past several years, there have been many more people who want to sell, than those who want to buy.  The result is a buyers market.  Lots of inventory,  all competing for a smaller buyer pool. 

As we approach the spring market, the question really becomes, are we still going to see a market where there are a lot more sellers than buyers.  The shift in inventory, at least offers the possibility that the dynamics in the market are shifting a bit, to a more balance market condition.  We saw clear evidence, late last year, that the tax credit did stimulate transactions.  From a units perspective, November 2009, was  surprisingly busy. 

It remains to be seen what the spring will bring.  It is clear, that inventory levels have trended lower.  Interest rates are incredibly low, and the tax credit is a wonderful incentive for those considering buying.  How the relationship between numbers of buyers and sellers plays out , in each local market, will determine whether the market becomes more balanced in the spring.

If you would like to know what your house is worth, in the current market, please feel free to contact me.

Home buyers & sellers 2009; Yardley, Newtown, Bucks County, Pa.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released their report of home buyers and sellers, for 2009.  Thought it would be interesting, to review some of the highlights of the report, with you.

Characteristics of Home Buyers

• 47 percent of recent home buyers were first time home- buyers.
• The typical first-time home buyer was 30 years old, while the typical repeat buyer was 48.
• The 2008 median household income of buyers was $71,300.  The median income was $61,600 among first time buyers and $88,100 among repeat buyers.
• Twenty-One percent of recent home buyers were single females and 10 percent were single males.
• For one-thhird of recent hohme buyers, the primary reason for the recent home purchase was a desire to own a home.

Characteristics of Homes Purchased

• New home purchases were at the lowes level in eight years-down to 18% of all recent home purchases.
• The typical home purchased was 1800 sq. ft and was built in 1991
• Seventy-eight percent of home buyers purchased a detached single-family home.
• The median price of home purchased was $210,000 in the Northeast, $158,000 in the Midwest, $175,000 in the South, and $240,000 in the West.
• When considering the purchase of a home, commuting coosts were considered very or somewhat important, by 78 percent of buyers.

The Home Search Process

• For more than one-third of home buyers, the first step in the home buying process was looking online for properties.
• 94% of home buyers used the internet to search for homes.
• Real Estate agents were viewed as a very useful information source by 81% of buyers who used an agent while searching for a home.
• The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

Home Buying and Real Estate Professionals

• Seventy-seven percent of buyers purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker.
• Ten percent of buyers purchased a home in foreclosure, up from 3% in 2008.
• Forty-Four percent of buyers found their agent through a referral from a friend or family member.

Financing the Home Purchase

• Ninety-two percent of home buyers financed their home purchase.
• The percentage of first-time buyers who financed 100 percent of the purchase price with a mortgage, dropped to 15% from 23% last year.
• Nearly half of home buyers reprted they have madae some sacrifices such as reducing spending on luxury items, entertainment or clothing.
• One-fifth of first-time home buyers reported their mortgage application and approval process was somewhat more difficult than they expected, and one-in-ten reported it was much more difficult than expected.

Home Sellers and Their Selling Experience

• About half of home sellers traded up to a larger size and higher priced home and slightly more than one-fifth traded down to a smaller and less expensive home.
• Eighty-five percent of sellers were assisted by a real estate agent when selling their home.
• Recent sellers typically sold their home for 95 percent of the asking price and 60 percent reported they reduced the asking price at least once.
• Forty-two percent of sellers offererd incentives to attract buyers, most often assistance with home warranty policies and closing costs.

Home Selling and Real Estate Professionals.

• Forty percent of sellers who used a real estate professional found their agents through a referral by friends or family, and 26 percent used the agent they previously worked with.
• Ninety percent of sellers reported that their home was listed or advertised on the internet.
• Among recent sellers who used an agent, 81 percent reported they would definitely or probably use that real estate agent again or would recommend that person to others.

For Sale By Owner (FSBO) Sellers.

• The share of home sellers who sold their home without the assistance of a real estate agent was 11 percent.  About half of them, 45 percent, knew the buyer prior to home purchase.
• The primary reason that sellers choose to sell their home without the assistance of a real estate agent to a buyer they did not know was that they did not want to pay a fee.
• Nearly one-third of FSBO sellers took no action to market their home, and 57 percent did not offer any incentives to attract buyers.
• Eighteen percent of FSBO sellers reported preparing or fixing upu the home for sale was their most difficult task, while 15 percent reported getting thte price right and and additional 15 percent reported understanding and performing paperwokr was the hardes part of selling their home.

So how does all of this compare with our market in Yardley, Newtown and throughout Bucks County?  A couple of quick observations.  Our prices tend to be higher than the National median, for sure.   In most of the areas I cover, our median income is higher than the national average.  It is certainly true that there were more first-time home buyers in 2009, than in previous years.  I expect that trend to continue, for at least as long as the first-time home buyer tax credit exists.  Also, for most of the markets that I cover, the number of foreclosures and distressed property transactions is higher than I ever remember, it is not as high as the national averages. 

Hope you found this information helpful.  Wonder what we will be saying about 2010, this time next year.  Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Upper Makefield Township, Bucks County, 2009 real estate year in review

On my last post, I took a detailed look at what happend in 2009 in Lower Makefield Township real estate market.

Today, we are going to check out the results from 2009, in Upper Makefield Township real estate market.

Here is what the real estate market looked like, as we finished 2009, in Upper Makefield Township.

Inventory in Upper Makefield Township

There were 101 homes for sale, as of the end of 2009, in Upper Makefield. This compared with an inventory of 134, as of the end of 2008. There were 113 homes for sale, at the end of November, 2009. This represents a decline in inventory of 24.6%, from the end of last year. Normally, that is a good sign for sellers.

Pricing Trends in Upper Makefield

The average price of a home for sale in Upper Makefield, at the end of 2009, was 1.43 million. At the end of 2008, the average price of a home for sale, was 1.59 million. This represents a decline of 9.8% in list pricing.

There were 72 homes that sold in 2009, and they sold at an average of 88% of the asking price. 71 homes sold in 2008, and they sold at an average of 91% of the asking price.

Summary;

Inventory levels are down and unit sales are modestly, up. Probably the most telling statistic is that at the current sales pace, there is a 16.8 momnth supply of homes in inventory. We consider a balanced market when there is approximately a 6 month supply. You can clearly see that there is a strong, buyers market in Upper Makefield Township, at the current time.

Average days on the market for all price levels, is 111 days. For homes priced between 1-3 million, the average days on market are considerably longer, and the supply is measured in years!  82% of the 72 homes that sold this year, were priced below 1 million!  55% of the current inventory, is priced above 1 million. Specifically, based on the current rate of sales for homes over a million, there is a 4.3 year supply! 13 homes sold over 1 million in 2009, which represents 1.08 per month.

It is particularly telling that the average sale price in 2009, was 762,000 yet the average price for the current inventory, is 1.43 million!

It is evident that there is a lot of competition in Upper Makefield, especially at the higher price levels. It is critically important, that you price your house correctly, if you intend to sell.

As always, I welcome your thoughts and comments on any of this information. I will review additional communities, in future posts.

Lower Makefield Township real estate year in review

I posted the other day, a wonderful chart that tracked the rise of fall of real estate values, in a number of markets in Bucks County. 

Today, I am going to start to review 2009, community by community.  We will start by reviewing 2009 results in Lower Makefield Township.


First, prices in Lower Makefield Township, delcined in 2009, by 6.7%.  Please see the table that details pricing in Lower Makefield, starting from a base year of 2000.  The price of an average house in Lower Makefield Township was 288,000 in 2000, and was 462,000, as of the end of 2009.

We ended the year with an inventory of 174 homes, which happened to be exactly the same as what the inventory was, at the end of 2008.  There were 196 homes for sale, as of the end of November of 2009, so inventory dropped a bit in December, but remained exactly the same as a year ago.

How about pricing?  The average price of a home for sale in Lower Makefield Township, at the end of 2009, was 501,000.  This compared with 562,000, at the end of 2008.  This represents a drop of 10.9%.

Unit sales for 2009 were 255, and those homes sold for 91% of the asking price.  This compared with unit sales of 251 for 2008, and in 2008, those homes sold at 94% of the asking price.

Currently in Lower Makefield, there is an 8+ month supply of homes on the market.  The average days on the market is now 84, compared with 67 last year.  We consider a market to be balanced, when there is a 6 month supply, so you can see that conditions are favorable for buyers.  I am sure that this does not surprise anyone.

All of these statistics are based on all house types, including townhomes, but do not include condominiums.

In future posts, I will examine the year for other communities, including Newtown, Upper Makefield, New Hope and Buckingham.

As always, it is critically important to price your house well, if you want to sell.

Please let me know if you have any thoughts or comments.

Bucks County, Pa 2009 Real Estate market recap

Now that 2009 has ended, we can beging to examine what happened to the real estate market, in the various communities that I serve, in Bucks County, Pa.  For my first post, examining market trends, entering 2010, I thought it could be helpful, to take a look at a chart that shows per year price appreciation (or depreciation) in markets that I serve, as well as throughout the county.

The table below, tracks very specific year to year appreciation, along with units sold, in various municipalities in Bucks County.  It is interesting to see, that the markets all are different.  For example, looking at Lower Makefield Township, prices declined by 6.7% in 2009, while in Newtown Township, prices dropped by 3.7% in 2009.


 

For all of Bucks County, prices dropped by 6.8% in 2009. 

These statistics are based on houses that sold, and they include all homes other than condominiums. 

In future posts, I will be taking an in depth look, at market statistics, in the Yardley, Newtown, Upper Makefield, Buckingham, and Solebury areas.

If you have any questions, or would like any clarification of this information, please contact me.

Real estate statistics in Yardley, Newtown, Upper Makefield Township, Lower Makefield Township & Bucks County

I have not done this in a number of posts, but I wanted to take a very detailed look at market statistics, through the end of November, in some of the markets that I serve. 
 In virtually all of the markets in which I work in Bucks County, the pace of 2009 year to date units has continued to improve.  For example, in all of Bucks County, the number of single family homes this November, was 79% higher than November of 2008. 

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