Marty Millner

Archive for the 'Marty's personal observations.' Category

What does a Yardley, Pa., Bucks County real estate agent think about recent, national sales data?

I recently was asked by a friend of mine, to refer her to an agent in an area of New Jersey, that I don’t cover.  My friend’s sister is a first time home buyer, a group that I love working with, and was intersted in buying a home in an area out of my normal market coverage.

I referred her to a great agent, an offer was made, which was ultimately accepted by the seller.

Just after her offer was accepted, the July sales figures for the national real estate market were released. 

My friend emailed me, and asked my thoughts about whether it was appropriate for her sister to be buying a house, given the recent news.

Here was my answer to her.

I will chime in with my thoughts about the real estate market.  I am not able to comment specifically on the house your sister is buying, because I don’t know that market.  I do trust your sisters realtor’s  judgment and knowledge, though.

 

The recent housing market stats was not at all unexpected.  Everyone knew that the sales activity would plummet following the expiration of the tax credit.  We saw the same thing when it originally expired in November.  Many experts felt that the tax credit basically just accelerated sales activity, so that people ended up buying sooner than they would have otherwise bought.

 

I can tell you that in Lower Makefield Township, unit sales are ahead of last year, as of the end of July, by 43.5%, which is incredible.  Bucks County as a whole, is up by more than 11%, in the number of units that have sold through the end of July. 

 

If you just compare the number of houses that have sold in Lower Makefield in July of 2009, compared with July of 2010, there was a sharp decline, which is what the national report indicated.  34 homes sold in Lower Makefield in July, last year, compared with 24 in July this year.  Again, using Lower Makefield as an example, comparing what happened in June 2010, with June 2009, 57 homes sold this June, compared with 31 last June. 

 

So what does all that mean?  Well, there is no question that we are still in the midst of a very strong, buyers market.  We consider a market to be balanced when there is about a 6 month supply of houses.  In our area, although it varies by community, most areas have a minimum of 9 months or more of houses on the market.  As a generalization, in Bucks County, buyers are achieving a discount of around 7% off of the asking price.  However, in our area, I have seen recent examples of homes that attracted multiple offers, and actually sold higher than their asking price, even in the current market.  I was involved with a transaction on a short sale, where there were actually 5 offers, and the house ended up selling for thousands of dollars over the banks asking price.

 

I mention that, because in the case of the house that your sister is buying, if the bank has priced the property very competitively, then it is not totally out of the question to pay the asking price.  That’s where I would defer to the expert who really knows the market in Flemington.  In addition, your sister’s lender will require a formal appraisal.  They are tougher than ever, right now, and if the house does not appraise for at least the sale price, she will have the right to not buy the house.  I can explain all of that, if you are not familiar with how that works.

 

I realize that given the current market, every buyer worries about whether it makes any sense to buy right now.  There was a great article in either the New York Times or Wall Street Journal yesterday, and I apologize because I can’t recall which paper I read it in, that talked about the fact that buyers are getting back to much more traditional reasons for buying homes.  The concept of having a house become a wildly appreciating asset, is a relatively new  thought and concept.  People seem to be going back to the idea that you buy a house because its where you will be comfortable, and where you wish to live, etc.  I also think its worth noting that although there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the real estate market, interest rates are virtually at all time lows.  It is hard for me to envision any scenario where rates can drop much lower.  That means that from a cash management perspective, even if values dropped somewhat in the short term, if rates increase, your probably better off buying now, when rates are as low as they are. 

 

Although I don’t have a crystal ball, my own belief is that we are closer to the bottom than we have been in a while.  It is also true that the entire corridor between Philly and New York, has still held up much better than many other parts of the country.  2 of my 3 kids have bought houses in the past 6 months or so, and if I didn’t think it was an appropriate time, I certainly would  have told them. 

So, the bottom line is, no one knows for sure what is going to happen in the real estate market.  Yardley, Newtown, and the rest of Bucks County, is a great place to live.  There are a lot more options if you are looking to buy than rent.  I think that sellers are gradually becoming more realistic, and homes that are priced  correctly, still sell. 

If you are buying a house becuase it fits your lifestyle, in terms of size, location and community, as I told my kids, I would say, go for it!

Yardley real estate in August, 2010.

A detailed look at the Bucks County real estate market for July 2010

I Wanted to provide a detailed look at the Bucks County real estate market, in general, and some specifics for local markets that I cover. These statistics are taken directly from Coldwell Banker Hearthside Realtors market research derived from Trend MLS data.

Average For all of Bucks County,

note the following for units that have sold as of the end of July, 2010

2009                                  2010

2554                                  2845                +11.4%

Houses in Inventory for Bucks County as of end of July, 2010

4593                                  4634                  Up less than 1%

Average price of a house in inventory for Bucks County:

$495,000                           487,000            -1.7%

Average sold price:

$329,000                            342,000             +3.9%

Countywide discount from the asking price is 8%

For the entire County, the average days on the market for a home, is 86.

   
It is interesting to note, the huge difference between the average price of a home in inventory, and the average price of a house that actually sells.  Currently in Bucks County, the difference is 487,000, which is the average price of a home in inventory, compared with 342,000 which is the average price of a house that has sold.

The reason for this, and it is true within individual communities, is that the houses that are the most expensive in any area, skew the average price of homes on the market, and are typically the most difficult to sell.  

We see examples of this in individual municipalities as well.

Lets look at real estate specifics for Lower Makefield Township and Yardley, for now.  Keep in mind the Bucks County wide statistics, as we look at individual markets.  In future posts, I will review  statistics from Newtown, Upper Makefield and other areas in which I work.

Inventory of Homes in Yardley/Lower Makefield

July 2010             223
June 2010           238
July 2009            251.

Number of homes in inventory, is down 11.2% from the previous year, and down 6.3% from June, 2010.

Average Pricing in Yardley/Lower Makefield for homes on the market.

Average price of a home for sale in July, 2010 was $520,000.
Average price of a home for sale in July 2009 was $522,000.

Asking price of homes in inventory is flat, down just 0,2% from last year.

Average Pricing in Yardley/Lower Makefield for homes sold

Average price of a house that has actually sold in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township is 414,000, as of the end of July, 2010.

The average price of a house that sold last year, was 462,000.

This is an interesting observation.  The average price of a house for sale in Lower Makefield Township and Yardley, is 520,000, but the average price of what actually sells, is 414,000.  This represents a large difference, and I believe what we are seeing is that the more expensive homes on the market, skew the average price of inventory, and since they don’t sell as often, they don’t have the same affect on the average price of what sells.

Unit Sales of homes in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township.

131 homes sold through the end of July, 2009 at 91% of the asking price.
188 homes sold through the end of July, 2010 at 93% of the asking price.

This represents a very impressive increase in unit sales volume of 43.5% over the previous year to date.  In 2009, sales volume increased by 1.6% overe the previous year.

Please note that buyers are still achieving an average of 7% off of the asking price.

Summary

So what does all of this mean for buyers and sellers as well as home owners, in Yardley and Lower Makefield Township?  Since there is still an 8.6 month inventory of homes on the market, and since buyers are still seeing pretty significant discounts from the asking prices, it is clear that factors still favor buyers in the Yardley, Lower Makefield Township area.  In addition, average days on the market are up slightly, from 73 days last year, to 78 this year.  Competition remains challenging.  Be sure to check out the graphs and charts, that show what all of these numbers mean.  The table that shows yearly appreciation is particularly intersting.

All things considered, the real estate market in Yardley , and Lower Makefield , continues to perform better than in many other parts of the country.  As I mentioned, in future posts, I will look at the real estate market in Newtown, and Upper Makefield, as well as in other parts of Bucks County.

I always welcome your thoughts, comments and questions.  You can reach me at 215-510-1399.

Can you recognize these 12 home maintenance cures for Yardley & Newtown Homes.

Based on the real estate market in Yardley, Newtown and all over Bucks County, over the past year or so, there appear to be many people who have recently purchased homes for the first time. As I have writen about previously, I love working with first time home buyers.

I found this article on a great website, called House Logic. The site is defintely worth checking out. There are dozens and dozens of great articles that pertain to real estate. Today, lets look at 12 common home maintenance clues, and solutions.

Your house sometimes acts as if it’s alive—making strange sounds, emitting odd odors, and giving visual cues that say something might be amiss. Often, these are signs of home maintenance issues that need to be addressed, and decoding these sometimes puzzling clues could prevent minor problems from turning into major home repairs.

Here’s how to interpret what your house is trying to tell you, and how to recognize the early warnings of common home

Peeling exterior paint

Cause: Moisture is probably getting underneath the paint, perhaps from a leaking gutter overhead or from a steamy bathroom on the other side of the wall.

Cure: If you catch the problem right away, you might just need to address the moisture issue and then scrape off the loose paint, prime bare spots, and repaint that wall, for a total of a few hundred to a couple thousand dollars. Delay too long and the siding might rot. Patching and repainting the whole house might cost $10,000.

To prevent a chronically steamy bathroom, consider installing a new ventilation fan with a humidity-sensing switch that automatically exhausts moisture-laden air. Cost is about $250.

Flickering lights

Cause: If only a single bulb flickers, it might be loose in its socket or in need of replacement. If lights always dim when the refrigerator or other appliance turns on, the circuit might be overloaded. If groups of lights flicker, connections at the electrical panel or elsewhere might be loose, causing power to arc—or jump—over the gaps. Arcing is a serious problem; it starts fires.

Cure: Anyone can tighten a bulb. Handy homeowners can shut off circuits and tighten loose connections within switch boxes. If you’re not comfortable doing that, or if you suspect an overloaded circuit or loose connection at the panel box, call in a licensed electrician. You’ll pay $150 to $250 for a new circuit, and $500 to $700 for a new electrical panel—way less than what you’d spend to recover from a fire.

Rustling in a wall

Cause: Sure, termites usually signal their presence by building pencil-thick mud tubes up from the ground or by swarming from pinholes in floors or walls. But did you know it’s also possible to detect them by sound? Tap on a wall and then press an ear against it. See if you hear rustling that matches recordings of Formosan or other termites. A sound like crinkling cellophane could mean carpenter ants.

Cure: Call a pest-control professional. Cost is $65 to $100 for an inspection.

Loud knocking

Cause: If the knocking occurs when you turn off water, you have “water hammer,” caused when fast-moving water comes to a sudden stop and there is no air chamber (a short, specially designed piece of pipe) to cushion the shock wave. If knocking occurs when your furnace switches on or off, metal ducts are expanding or contracting as temperature changes.

Cure: If water pipes are the issue and there is an air chamber near the faucet, it may be filled with water and needs to be drained. You might be able to do this yourself. If you’re not confident of tackling that or if there is no chamber, call a plumber ($65 an hour) to add one. Those snapping ducts? Just get used to them.

A toilet tank that refills all on its own

Cause: Worn interior parts may be causing water to trickle through the toilet constantly, causing the water level in the tank to lower and eventually triggering the refill mechanism. A leaky toilet potentially wastes 1,500 gallons a month.

Cure: Untangle or loosen the chain—it may be too tight and preventing the flapper from seating fully, letting water leak out the flush valve. Or, try bending the tube connected to the float ball. If those don’t work, replace the valve and flapper inside the toilet tank (under $25 if you do it yourself, and a little more if you upgrade to a water-saving dual-flush valve).

Creaks and groans

Cause: All houses creak and groan a little as parts expand and contract with temperature fluctuations and with changes in levels of humidity.

Cure: None—it’s normal for house to make a few snaps and pops. But don’t ignore really loud groans when there’s been an unusual amount of snow or rain, especially if your house has a flat roof. There may be an excessive or even dangerous amount of weight on your roof. If you suspect that may be the case, be prudent: Get everyone out of the house and call in a professional to check the roof.

Musty odors

Cause: Mildew, a fungus, is growing because indoor air is humid enough to allow condensation to form on cold surfaces. Basements are favorite haunts for mildew.

Cure: Keep surfaces dry by one or more strategies: increase air movement with a $20 fan, keep relative humidity below 50% in summer or 40% in winter with a $175 dehumidifier, or make surfaces warmer by adding insulation.

Rotten-egg smell when you run water

Cause: Bacteria that produce hydrogen sulfide gas (the scientific name for “rotten egg smell”) are in your plumbing, or there is a problem with your water heater. Fill a glass with hot water, step away from the sink, and take a whiff; if you detect no sulfur smell, they’re in the drain.

Cure: Disinfect the drain by pouring in a $1 bottle of 3% hydrogen peroxide solution, sold at drug stores. A sulfur smell in only hot water points to the water heater as the problem; call a plumber to disinfect the system or replace the tank’s magnesium anode. If hot and cold water both smell, call your water supplier (or health department if you have a well).

Strange-tasting tap water

Cause: Mineral content of drinking water varies, so taste does too. But if the water tastes metallic, iron or copper may be leaching from pipes. If you taste chlorine, your water supplier may have overdosed on disinfectant, or a correct level could be interacting with organic material within your plumbing system.

Cure: If chlorine seems high at all taps, or if you taste metals, call your water supplier or have your well water tested. If only one tap has water with high chlorine or if the taste goes away after you run water for a few minutes, flush your system or call a plumber.

An under-the-counter water purifier with a top-quality activated carbon filter will remove heavy metals, bacteria, and other contaminants. In addition, it removes odors and bad tastes. Expect to pay $150 to $200 for a purifier with a replaceable cartridge.

Sour milk

Cause: With today’s hyper-pasteurized dairy products, milk doesn’t sour easily. So if it or other refrigerated food spoils unusually fast, the temperature in your refrigerator could be too high.

Cure: Get an $8 refrigerator thermometer and adjust the control so on each shelf stays below 40 degrees. If you can’t achieve this, consider buying a new Energy Star-rated refrigerator. Fridges are pricey, $450 to $2,000 or more, but you’ll save energy as well as food and might qualify for rebates.

Trembling floors

Cause: If items on tables and shelve jiggle and shimmy when you walk past, or if your floor feels like it gives under your weight, the floor joists might not be sturdy enough or past remodeling might have removed a support wall.

Cure: Have a structural engineer or experienced contractor see whether you can add more joists, bolster existing ones with an additional layer of plywood subflooring, or add a post to support the floor better. You’ll pay up to $500 for a structural engineer to evaluate your problem.

Mysterious breezes

Cause: If a ground-floor room seems drafty, air may be seeping in along the foundation or through an improperly sealed window or door. A drafty attic can make things worse, as warm air currents will rise naturally and exit through any gaps in the attic, pulling colder air in through lower-level cracks.

Cure: Starting in the attic and working your way down, seal all gaps.

Upper Makefield, Washington Crossing and Bucks County Market Statistics for June 2010

For today’s post, lets look at what has happened through June, in Upper Makefield Township  & Washington Crossing , Bucks County  real estate.

Upper Makefield Township is interesting, because it represents one of the more expensive real estate communities in Bucks County, and also, in general has the fewest number of transactions. As a result, sometimes the numbers can be skewed.

Upper Makefield Real Estate update, June 30, 2010

Inventory of homes for sale, as of the end of June, 2010 was 138
Inventory of homes for sale, as of the end of May, 2010 was 141
Inventory of homes for sale, as of the end of June, 2009 was 132.

Inventory is fairly stable, both month to month, as well as compared with the same time last year.

Average price of a home for sale at the end of June, 2010 was 1.24 million.
Average price of a home for sale at the end of June, 2009 was 1.32 million.

List price in inventory is down by 5.5%. However, this is where the numbers can get a bit skewed by the number of houses that are for sale above 1.3 million.

Sales data:

47 Homes have sold, through June, 2010 at 90% of original asking price.
30 Homes sold through the end of June, 2009 at 87% of original asking price.

This really represents a large increase in the activity level, for Upper Makefield Township real estate. Sales volume is up by more than 56% from last year, at the same time.

Additional observations: At the current sale pace, there still remains an 18.6 month supply of homes in inventory. This compares with 22 months a year ago, so factors have improved, although we still remain in a strong, buyers market in Upper Township and Washington Crossing.

The other interesting observation is that during 2009, most (82%) of the homes sold in Upper Makefield Township, sold for less than a million. Currently, 49% of the homes (68 of 138) on the market are priced above 1 million. This represents a 38 month supply at current sales pace for homes priced above a million. As bad as that sounds, it actually represents a significant improvement for more expensive homes in Upper Makefield.

As always, it is critical to price your home realistically, if you want to sell.

I can offer a very detailed report, that will show you homes that are active, pending and sold, within about a 5 mile radius of your home, in any area I serve. It is an extremely detailed report. If you would like to receive the report, please email me. Marty@martinmillner.com

Lambertville, NJ-Shadfest is here! April 24th and 25th

Lambertville, NJ-Shadfest is here! April 24th & 25th  Don’t miss this year’s Shadfest celebration! 12:30- 5:30 p.m.

The festivities revolve around the spring arrival of the American Shad , the largest fish in the herring family. The Shad Fest tradition was born as spring blossomed, the shad made their way upriver, and the locals strolled through town enjoying the arts and crafts of their friends and neighbors. 

Always in the mood for a celebration, Lambertville residents hosted the first Shad Fest in 1981 to highlight the local art scene. Almost 30 years later, Shad Fest has grown from a local event to an award-winning tourist attraction. People new to Shad Fest ask a lot of questions. Here are the answers to a few.

Not only are able to enjoy many of Lambertville local artists and crafters you will of course enjoy local eateries and their Shad specialties. One of the best local shad recipes is from Paul Eschallier of Bell’s Tavern : Shad & Shrimp Fritters. Yum.     
No worries, Shad Fest welcomes lovers of all foods. There are so many things to do, see and eat at Shad Fest; you’ll love it whether you like fish or not. Spend some time exploring www.shadfest.com  to plan your perfect day!

Bucks County, PA- Guys and Dolls at the Bucks County Playhouse 4/17-4/18

The Bucks County Playhouse , The State Theater of Pennsylvania, located in New Hope, Bucks County, Pennsylvania is a national landmark for Broadway Plays and is rich in theatrical history. Some of the biggest and brightest names in show business first got their start on its stage“Springtime for Henry” with Edward Everett Horton opened the Playhouse season in 1939 and the celebrities that followed are a who’s who of the theater. Princess Grace Kelly, Bea Arthur, Jack Cassidy, Colleen Dewhurst, Bob Fosse, Merv Griffin, Gene Rayburn, William Shatner, Paul Lynde, George C. Scott, Liza Minnelli, Audra McDonald, Loretta Swit, Don Knotts, Andrea McArdle and John Travolta are just a few of the luminaries that have graced the Playhouse stage in our incredible list of Broadway productions.

This weekend you can enjoy Neshaminy Valley Music Theaters’ production of  ”Guys and Dolls” at the Bucks County Playhouse .

Guys and Dolls is a cornerstone of Broadway musical comedy that continues to delight audiences year after year. Featuring show stopping songs such as “Luck be a Lady” and “Sit Down You’re Rockin’ the Boat”, this musical is the perfect balance of story, dance, music, comedy and romance!
classic musical fable about Sarah Brown, the upright but uptight “mission doll,” out to reform the evildoers of Time Square and Sky Masterson, the slick, high-rolling gambler who woos her on a bet and ends up falling in love.   To buy tickets and get full details visit www.buckscountyplayhouse.com

Want to learn about Pennsbury, Council Rock, Central Bucks, or any school district in Bucks County?

One of the most important considerations people have, in trying to decide where to move, is the quality of education provided by the school district.

Anyone who knows me, knows how passionate I am about education.  In fact, having grown up in Trenton, New Jersey, I serve on the board of the Trenton Public Education Foundation.  Our organizations mission is to broker, foster and leverage resources that enhance and promote educational opportunities for the students in the Trenton School District.

We are extremely fortunate, in the general Bucks County area, to have a variety of very strong, public school districts.  Whether considering Pennsbury, Council Rock, Central Bucks, or any of the many, award wining districts, prospective buyers always want to know my thoughts about which district is, “best”.

I actually have a school district comparison link on my main website, at MartinMillner.com.  There are actually a number of websites that offer a variety of ways of comparing school districts.

One of the best local resources, is the report done every year, by the Philadelphia Inquirer. 

The Inquirer’s 13th annual report card on area schools, was in yesterday’s (April 11th, 2010) edition. 

Click here to see the report, online.

The report is an extremely comprehensive analysis of all the local public school districts, in both Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and incldues information on private schools, as well.

There is a very interesting story on the new focus on sciences that is taking place in our various districts. 

There is actually a breakdown of how schools are doing with science tests, in 4th grade.

There is a comparison on spending, salaries academics and other factors.

You will find a test score comparison for 8th and 11th grade science, as well.

There are other test score comparisons, as well.

The report breaks down what is offered at high schools throughout the region.

You will also find a breakdown of the ususal math and reading test scores at various grade levels, as well.

Overall, this is one of the best and most comprehensive school reports provided locally, and I highly recommend it if you are looking at comparing school districts.

I will have hard copies available.  Please contact me, if you would like to receive a hard copy.

Spring is in the air, in Yardley, Newtown and all over Bucks County

If you live anywhere in the area around Yardley, Newtown, or in the Bucks County, Pa. area, then you know that the past few days have been absolutely gorgeous.  Spring is finally in the air! 

With temperatures in the 60’s and even 70’s, the outdoor activities in the area, are in full bloom.

As I mentioned in this short video, there was a long line at Rita’s Water Ice, in Newtown.  The canal towpath was packed with joggers, and walkers.  People were sitting outside, along the river, in New Hope, and Peddlers Village was packed.

Lots of families feeding the ducks at the Yardley pond. 

There is nothing like Bucks County in spring time.

Realtor weekend in Yardley, Bucks County, Pa.

Thought it would be fun spending some time,  letting  you know how I am spending the last weekend in February.

Last night, we had wonderful Indian food, at the Indian Garden restaurant, in Lower Makefield Township .  Indian Garden has become one of our favorite, local restaurants.  They offer a wide selection of traditional Indian dishes, and everything we have had, has been delicious.  I highly recommend that you try it.

Today, Saturday, I played basetball for about 3 hours this morning.  I normally get to play basketball 3 times a week.  I do try and stay in shape, so in addition to basketball, my wife and I work out with an incredible personal trainer, Dr. Kareem Samhouri, at his gym, Global Fitness, LLC, in Bucks County.  Kareem has a doctorate in physical therapy, so he can address any sports injuries I develop, as well as helping us stay in shape.

Obviously weekends are busy times, for realtors.  This weekend is no different for me.   I spent the afternoon showing a couple of first time home buyers, houses in both Bucks County, and Mercer County. 

Tomorrow, I am meeting with a client at 10:00 AM, to review a home inspection report, so we can draft a reply to the seller.  Following that, I will be spending several hours with another first time home buyer. 

The houses that I have listed, are getting some activity this weekend, so I am hopeful that I may have to negotiate an offer. 

I also listed a house yesterday, so I am in the process of entering all the information in the MLS, and arranging for professional photography, and getting started with the various websites, that feature my listings.

All in all, not a bad weekend, considering we survived another major snow storm in the east.

I think most of us, here in Yardley, and all over Bucks County, are ready for spring!

If you are in the real estate market, please don’t forget that there are just over 60 days, until the tax credit expires.  To qualify, you must have a contract in place, by April 30th, and close by June 30th.