Don’t know where the year went.

For me, it was a productive and successful real estate year.  For that,  I am totally grateful and thankful for the buyers and sellers who trusted me to handle their real estate transactions, and I am also extremely thankful and appreciative of the colleagues, friends and clients who referred real estate business to me.  I work really hard at what I do, and feel truly blessed to have so many people allow me to be a part of their lives during the real estate process, and beyond.

My personal outlook for real estate in the Yardley and Newtown area, and for all of Bucks County, is cautiously optimistic.  I have written previously about the fact that we have a lot less distressed property sales in Yardley and Newtown,  and in most of Bucks County, than in many other parts of the country.  There is clear evidence right now that prices for non-distressed homes are holding very steady.

While I don’t envision a sudden shift in the market, I do think that we will see, in 2012, in Bucks County, a market that becomes more balanced than it has been.  I think that sellers who are realistic about pricing will not have difficulty selling in 2012.  I think that there will continue to be excellent value in the market for buyers of homes in Yardley and Newtown in 2012, but I also think that buyers need to be realistic about our market, as well.  What I mean by that is that I know that there are buyers who feel as though they can make virtually any offer they want, and often expect that sellers will take anything.  Remember, the average discount from original asking price in Bucks County is about 8%.

More sellers are becoming more realistic about the market, and I think that will continue in 2012.  If sellers price homes realistically, given the current market conditions, then it will take a much shorter period of time to sell, and it will reduce opportunities for low ball offers, as well.

I have been able to enjoy a bit of down time over the holidays, which I always appreciate.  I have gotten in some basketball, which I do all year long.  We have seen a number of movies, including, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,”  “We Bought a Zoo,” and “Young Adult.”  I loved “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” although I thought the books were better because they went deeper than is possible with a movie.  We also totally loved, “We Bought a Zoo.”

Also had a chance to get into New York to see a show and have dinner.  We saw Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, which was wonderful.  Amazing costumes, great acting and music.  I love being so close to both Philadelphia and New York.  It is one of the great aspects of living in Yardley.

Finally, I wanted to wish you all a very happy, healthy and prosperous new year!  Enjoy New Year’s Eve celebrations, but stay safe, and I will see you in 2012!

Hard to believe that we are just a week away from Christmas!

From a Yardley real estate perspective, we are now 11 months into data for 2011. Let’s see where we are, both with Yardley real estate and Bucks County real estate.

Bucks County real estate

Units Sold: Looking at numbers for all of Bucks County, the number of units sold this year is about 4% lower than a year ago at this time. For those who suggest that no real estate sells in Bucks County, although the number of houses sold is a bit lower, there have been 4,052 homes that have closed through November this year!

Pricing: The average price of a home for sale in Bucks County is down by 5.5% from last year at the same time.

Pending Sales: This is the best forward indicator of real estate activity, and the number of pending sales has trended up for several months.

Inventory: This is also an extremely important metric, when considering Bucks County real estate market conditions. The number of houses for sale in Bucks County is 7% less this month than last month, and more than 11% lower than it was at the same time last year! This still represents more than 11 months of inventory in Bucks County. We consider a market to be balanced when there is about a six month inventory, so you can see that factors are still favoring buyers. It is important to note, that the average days on market has also increased this year, from 88 to 101.

Observations for Bucks County real estate market

My observation from all of these statistics is that the market, while still favoring buyers, has stabilized a bit in Bucks County. I posted an article the other day comparing distressed and non-distressed real estate sales. In the article, I pointed out that both locally and nationally, prices of non-distressed properties appear to have stabilized. In looking at Bucks County real estate, it is important to note that we have far fewer distressed property sales than in many other parts of the country. Houses can and will sell, if they are priced correctly, marketed properly, and if appropriate steps are taken to ensure that they show as well as possible.

Yardley Real Estate Information

As I have pointed out many times in the past, real estate markets are very local, often varying from neighborhood to neighborhood. Let’s look at what is happening in the Yardley and Lower Makefield Township real estate market.

Inventory

• Inventory of homes Nov 2011 204
• Inventory of homes Oct 2011 226
• Inventory of homes Nov 2010 194

Although inventory is a bit less this month, compared with last month, it is higher by almost 10% from the same time last year. This is a bit of a contrast to the County as a whole.

Pricing

• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2011 489,000
• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2010 499,000

Asking price of a house for sale in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township is about 2% lower this year.

Units sold

• 261 homes sold through November this year
• 291 homes sold at the same time last year

It is also interesting to note that homes selling this year sold at an average of 92% of the list price, while they sold at an average of 93% of list price last year. Please note that when comparing the sold price to list price, we use the original asking price, where the price is reduced.

There is currently about a nine month inventory of homes for sale in Yardley. This is actually a bit better than for all of Bucks County.

Observations

There is no question that, looking at all of this information, it is still a buyers market. However, whether you are a buyer, seller, or just curious about real estate in Bucks County, or Yardley, houses are selling. Interest rates are at historic lows. Despite public perception, buyers are getting mortgages, and real estate is selling. If you are a potential seller, it is critical that you be realistic about pricing. It has never been more important to make sure that your house shows as well as it possibly can, and that it is marketed properly and thoroughly. I have a real sense that, especially for non-distressed homes, the market is a bit more stable right now, than it has been in quite a while.

If you think wiping down counters and fluffing a few pillows in advance of the guest onslaught will land you on Santa’s “nice” list this holiday season, maybe you should check that to-do list twice. You

Scrub your entryway. Wipe down your front door, give the doormat a good shake, and make sure dust and dirt haven’t collected on floors and furniture legs. These are the first things guests will see when they arrive, so keeping them clean will guarantee a good first impression.

Focus on the kitchen. People tend to gather around the food during the holidays, so make sure your kitchen looks and smells nice. Don’t forget to dust the light fixtures and flush sink drains with boiling water.

Whatever you do, don’t neglect the loo. Don’t just wipe surfaces; break out the stiff-bristled brush and scouring powder to really scrub things clean.

Sniff out bad smells. If you clean your home and something still doesn’t smell quite right, brew some coffee. The aroma will cover it up.

Give your garbage disposal some love, considering how much it will “consume” this season. To cut down on odors, chop up a whole lemon — rind and all — and let the disposal gobble it up. Throw in ice cubes to sharpen the blades.

Make sure you can see the guests coming. Keep windows clean and streak-free on the cheap with an easy mixture of vinegar and water in a spray bottle. Wipe down windows with a reusable microfiber cloth.

With all your holiday cooking, stove tops and ovens are bound to get dirty. Baking soda and water make a simple scouring solution that can scrub off that baked-on gunk.

What are your tips for keeping your Yardley home guest-ready during the holiday season? Leave your comments below!

From a Bucks County perspective, why is this article so interesting?

There are always articles written that talk about how bad the real estate market is.  I have written pretty extensively about the real estate market in and around Yardley and Newtown, and all over Bucks County.  I have pointed out on numerous occasions, that our market is nowhere near as dire, as in other parts of the country, like Arizona, Florida, etc.

This Journal article is the first article that I have seen that makes a distinction between distressed sales, and non-distressed sales.  I think this could be a critically important distinction, because, as the article points out, according to CoreLogic, an important emerging trend is that home prices are actually stabilizing after excluding distressed sales.  If you are not familiar with the term, “distressed sale”, it essentially refers to bank owned properties, and/or short sales, etc.

It is clear, according to the statistics, that prices of non-distressed properties are actually stabilizing, even as the prices of distressed properties are still falling.

The reason this becomes so important to the real estate market in Bucks County, is because for Bucks County real estate, the percentage of distressed property sales, is very significantly lower than the national average.  In fact, for all of Bucks County, the percentage of distressed property sales is about 13% or so, while the national percentage is 28 to 30%.  I would actually suggest that in the Yardley, Newtown, Washington Crossing real estate market, that percentage is even lower.

In fact, many people are really surprised to learn that for the entire real estate market in Bucks County, following the height of the market, which was in 2007, prices fell by 6.7% in 2008, they dropped by 6.8% in 2009 and believe it or not, they actually went up by 4.3% in 2010.  Those statistics are based on the change in the average sold price, each year.

So, if you live in or are interested in real estate in Bucks County, spread the word!

Some observations, Bucks County wide real estate, first.

• Through June, sold/closed units is positive, compared with last year, in 7 of 8 of our principal markets, as well as for all of Bucks County.
• County wide the increase was 22.9%
• Real estate prices were actually up by 5.2%, through the first half of the year, for the entire County.  Refer to the chart, to see how each municipality did.
• For all of Bucks County, the pricing momentum actually declined from May.  It went from a 6.8% increase in May to June’s 5.2%
• The best forward looking indicator we have, is pending sales.  Probably due to the expiring tax credit this June, pending sales for Bucks County, was down 32%, compared with June of last year.  Surprisingly, it was 4 % higher than at the end of May.
• Inventory of homes, is higher now, than it was at the end of May, County wide.  However, compared with June, last year, inventory levels are down, County wide.
• Bucks County wide, there remains a 10.5 month supply of homes on the market, which is better than it was last year, at the same time, but still indicating a strong, buyers market.
• Average days on the market, remains higher in most markets, than last year.
• Average list price of homes in inventory, at the end of June, for the County, was down just slightly from last year. (-0.8%)
• Discounts off of the asking price, are actually showing an improving trend.  Overall, buyers are achieving approximately a 7% discount from the opening list price of the current listing contract.

Each of the real estate markets that I cover, performs differently.  Lets look at real estate in Lower Makefield & Yardley, for now.  I will review Upper Makefield Township, Newtown, Northampton, and others, in furture posts.[issuu viewmode=presentation layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Flight%2Flayout.xml showflipbtn=true documentid=100716154203-21c2dbbf18274151a0d0d7f568940ff8 docname=lmt_sold_units_-_avg_price_chart-1- username=sbgifford loadinginfotext=LMT_SOLD_UNITS_%26_AVG_PRICE_CHART(1) showhtmllink=true width=400 height=188 unit=px]

Lower Makefield Township, Yardley real estate observations.

• Inventory of homes for sale in June 2010 was 238
• Inventory of homes for sale in May 2010 was 223
• Inventory of homes for sale in June, 2009 was 253.
• Average price of a home for sale in June 2010 was $514,000.
• Average price of a home for sale in June 2009 was $526,000.
• 163 Homes sold through June of 2010, at 93% of the asking price.
• 97 Homes sold through June of 2009, at 91% of the asking price.

There remains an 8.9 month supply of homes on the market, in Lower Makefield Township.  Since we consider a balanced market to exist, when there is about a 6 month supply of houses, conditions still favor buyers.

Average days on the market are now 79 compared with 70 last year at this time.  Competition remains a challenge to sellers.  Now, more than ever, it is critical to price homes correctly and market aggressively, if you are to sell.

As always, I welcome your thoughts and comments, and I will post additional details on other communities, in future posts.
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Lets see where things stand, from a real estate perspective, after the first third of the year, for Bucks County.  We will also review the Lower Makefield Township/Yardley area in this post.

• For most of the markets in Bucks County, (12 of 18 markets I track) volume of sold units was positive compared with last year, at this time.
• The county-wide growth rate increased by 21%, which is pretty impressive.
• Pricing was positive in most of the principal markets we monitor regularly, and there was positive appreciation for Bucks County.  In fact, average sold pricing for the entire county, was up by 7.1%.
• Total unit sales in Bucks County through April, was 21% higher than last year.
• Probably the best forwarding looking indicator we have in real estate is the pending sale.  Those are homes where the seller has accepted an offer, but that have not yet gone to closing.
• Most of our markets, as well as for Bucks County as a whole, saw higher levels of pending sales, than last year at the same time.  Bucks County wide, shows a very strong increase of pending sales of 43.5%, over last year at the same time.  In some of our markets the pending sale increase is huge, when compared with last year.  For exampley, Buckingham Township is up by 113$, Upper Makefield is 100% higher, Lower Makefield is up 70%, Northampton is up 69%, Solebury is up by 63%, and Doylestown is up by 25%.  These are actually impressive numbers.
• Inventory levels are higher than they were at the end of March, whish is to be expected, in most markets.  However, when compared with the end of April, last year, inventory levels are down County-wide, and in most markets.  With somewhat improving inventory levels, the number of months of inventory,  has declined.  Most markets are still above 6 months, which means conditions still favor buyers, but the trend has shown improvement.
• Average list pricing is down a bit, from last year.
• Sold/list ratios in most markets, have shown some improvement.  We need to keep our eye on this statistic as we go through the spring market.

Lower Makefield Township Real Estate update

Here are some observations, through the end of April, for real estate, in Lower Makefield Township, and Yardley.

• Iventory of homes for sale at the end of April, 2010 was 236
• Inventory of homes for sale at the end of March, 2010 was 220.
• Inventory of homes for sale at the end of April, 2009 was 231.
• Unit inventory was up slightly, from last year, in Lower Makefield, and up by 7% from March.
• Average price of a home for sale at the end of April, 2010 was $500,000.
• Average price of a home for sale at the end of April, 2009 was $543,000.
• List price was down by 8%.
• 77  houses closed through the end of April, 2010.
• 48 houses closed through the end of April, 2009.
• This was a really impressive increase of 60.4% from last year.   Unit sales for 2009, were up by 1.6% oover the previous year.
• Buyers are still achieving approximately 8% off the original asking price.

Charts
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Summary

For your reference, there was 6.5% unit growth in 2007, 33.5% decline in 2008, and an increase in 2009 of 1.6%.  So far, 2010, has shown an increase of more than 60%.  Lets see how the rest of the year plays out. 

Inventory is still at 10 months.  Inventory is said to be balanced, when it is 6 months, so conditions in Lower Makefield, still favor the buyers.

Thus far, sale pricing is down by 2.4%.  Please refer to the pricing appreciation chart, to see how things have changed in many parts of Bucks County, and in Lower Makefield Township, in particular. 

Average days on the market, is actually higher this year, than last.  I suspect that this is because there are still many overpriced homes on the market.  I have been involved in many recent transactions, where homes have sold extremely quickly.  It is more important than ever, to price a home correctly. 

Please feel free to contact me with any questions about any of the charts or statistics.

I will review additional specific markets, in upcoming posts.

The table below, tracks very specific year to year appreciation, along with units sold, in various municipalities in Bucks County.  It is interesting to see, that the markets all are different.  For example, looking at Lower Makefield Township, prices declined by 6.7% in 2009, while in Newtown Township, prices dropped by 3.7% in 2009.

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For all of Bucks County, prices dropped by 6.8% in 2009. 

These statistics are based on houses that sold, and they include all homes other than condominiums. 

In future posts, I will be taking an in depth look, at market statistics, in the Yardley, Newtown, Upper Makefield, Buckingham, and Solebury areas.

If you have any questions, or would like any clarification of this information, please contact me.

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Corn Maze

I feel like since the weather is about to get colder out, that I need to visit every outdoor event this fall.

Well, here is another great event being held by Winding Brook Farms in Warrington, Pa.  The “Amazing” Corn Maize, Hay Maze, Li’l Peepers Hayride, Pumpkin Patch, weekly entertainment, concerts and more.

CORN MAiZE: A 5 acre maze to test your skill! Come see our design this year, created by Brett Herbst, founder of The Maize, LLC. These guys are the leading corn maze design/consulting company in the world. Expect 30 minutes or more to complete the maize. A trivia question “passport” can help guide you through the maze, if answered correctly. In the event of defeat, they have “corn cops” to show you the way out. How fun!

HAY MAZE: A labyrinth of hay bales towering above your head. It will take a few minutes to wind your way through this puzzle. Kids will love to enter numerous times, at no additional charge.

LI´L PEEPERS HAYRIDE: This is an evening hayride with Family Friendly Halloween Scenes. The hayride lasts approximately 30 minutes and is suitable for all ages.

PUMPKIN PATCH: A walk-to-patch, free of charge, is available. Or take a hayride to the pumpkin patch where each person can pick their perfect

They have also launched a Haunted Hayride this year called “Night Chills” and have a combo ticket for that with their Corn Walk of Horror for $25. This is for the family members who prefers their Autumn entertainment of the “spine-chilling” variety. The Haunted Hayride runs through 10/30. The duration is approximately 30 minutes.

See their website for ticket prices and combination deals. Some events are free with purchase. Tickets are also available at the farm on event dates.

Call me if you have question or just come out and enjoy the fall weather.

It is that time of year again! Halloween Hayrides, some very scary, some not as scary, you can take your pick.

Shady Brook Farms has something for everyone. Come early in the day to take a hayride to the pumpkin patch and then stay around in the evening for the Shady Brook Farm’s “Horrorfest”.  Horrorfest has four thrilling attractions such as the Hayride of Horror, Barn of Horror, Alien Encounter and Deadtime Stories Corn Maze. You can check times and buy tickets online at Shady Brook Farms.

A great hayride for the family is at Active Acres.  Here you can ride to the pumpkin patch to pick your own pumpkins. Enjoy pony rides, the corn maze, farm animals and more.  It is open every Saturday and Sunday from 11am to 3:30pm through October 26^th.

We have all heard of and hopefully have toured the Eastern State Penitentiary.  The Halloween attraction, “Terror Behind the Walls” is back with the New Infirmary now open. Voted #1 Haunted House in America, don’t miss the chance to be inside the 11 acres abandoned prison. Visit the Easter State Penitentiary “Terror Behind the Walls” for more information.

Come out to the Grand Opening weekend of the Valley of Fear and The Original Haunted Hayride here in Feasterville, PA.  Or if you can’t make it this weekend, you have plenty of opportunities as they will be open every Thursday through Sunday from October 1 to October 25 and then daily from October 27^th to November 1^st. There are three main attractions for you to see. First is the Original Haunted Hayride. Second are the Miles Manor and One Eyes Willy.  Third is the Valley of Fear. Visit the Valley of Fear website and print off an opening weekend coupon for 3 attractions for the price of two. You can also purchase the Fear Pass or VIP Fear Pass only which will let you skip to the front of the line on all three attractions.

What a great way to spend time outside before the weather turns cold.  If you need more information, please call me.