According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, “Signs of slowing economic growth and inflation remaining subdued allowed yields on Treasury bonds to ease somewhat and brought most mortgage rates to new all-time record lows this week.”

The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.84%, down from 3.88% last week. 15-year rates averaged 3.07%, down from 3.12% last week. Freddie Mac has been keeping records of interest rates since its inception in 1970. See Freddie Mac’s site for more interest rate history.

What it Means to Bucks County

As I have been observing for the past few months, the real estate market in Yardley & Newtown and all over Bucks County has experienced the most active spring market, especially for sellers, in years.

Correctly priced houses are selling much quicker than they have in the past few years, and we have even seen a few multiple offer situations.

Everyone knows that interest rates have been incredibly low, for some time.  The recent announcement by Freddie Mac, confirms exactly how low, historically, interest rates are.

I believe that one of the factors that may be helping the increase in activity this spring, is that buyers are slowing coming to the realization that interest rates will not stay at this level forever.  I think that we are seeing a bit of an increase in buyer motivation, because many buyers do not want to miss this incredibly opportunity to take advantage of lower home values, along with incredibly low interest rates.

I also believe that many sellers are afraid of the market, because of all of the negative publicity, so sellers who can avoid selling in the current market environment are not putting their houses on the market. So in many cases we see lower inventory, along with increased demand.

This is not to suggest that we are back to the double digit, crazy days of real estate.  I am suggesting that the dynamics in the Yardley, Newtown and Bucks County real estate market are much more balanced today than they have been in years.

So what is happening in real estate in Bucks County, and Yardley?

First quarter real estate market results are in, so lets take a look at what is happening.

First, looking at Bucks County real estate, what is really striking, is that the number of houses for sale, was more than 7% lower at the end of March this year, than last year at the same time.

I have blogged a couple of times recently, about the changing dynamics in the market.  It seems as though more houses are selling faster than they were last year, and based on the decrease in inventory levels, that makes sense.

The other extremely striking statistic, in the Bucks County real estate market, is in pending sales.  Pending sales represent homes where the seller has accepted an offer, but the house is waiting for closing.  Pending sales in Bucks County were up by an incredible 26% at the end of March, compared with last year.

I am not quite sure what to make of that number, yet.  I sense that buyers are more motivated, and more buyers are coming to the realization that 4% interest rates will not be around forever.

Check the chart, for Bucks County real estate details.

Bucks County real estate market in a shapshot

Yardley Real Estate

In the Yardley, Lower Makefield Township real estate market, the number of homes on the market is actually about 2% higher at the end of March than it was last year at the same time.

Inventory was up by almost 12% from the end of February, which is to be expected, as we entered the spring market.

I think that there are still an abundance of houses in Yardley that have been on the market for a long time, because they are overpriced, given current market conditions.  Even though inventory levels are higher, there is definitely more activity in the real estate market right now.

It is also interesting to note that the average price of a house on the market in Lower Makefield Township was $476,000 thie year, compared with $481,000 last year.

In addition to that, it may surprise people to know that the average price of a home sold in 2011, increased slightly in 2011, and is up by 5% this year, so far.

In Lower Makefield Township, there still is about an 8 month inventory supply, which indicates that factors are still favorable for buyers.  We consider the real estate market to be balanced, when there is about a 6 month supply of homes on the market.

Yardley real estate appreciation chart

In summary, the real estate market in Bucks County, and especially in the Yardley-Newtown areas, is showing the most encouraging signs that I have seen in about 4 years.  There are still homes that have been on the market for months and months, because they are overpriced.  However, homes that come on the market that are priced realistically, based on current market conditions, are selling much fast than they have at any point in the past 4 years.  If you are getting ready to put your house on the market, please ask me for a copy of my ebook, 450 ideas to help get your home sold quickly.  Send me your email, and I will email it to you.  My email is: Marty@MartinMillner.com.

Contrary to what the press would have us all believe, people actually bought and sold houses in 2011! NAR interviews literally thousands of home buyers and sellers every year, and generates a very comprehensive review of the prior year in real estate.  What did we see in 2011?

Buyers

• 37% of recent home buyers were first time home buyers.  This represented a drop from 50% in 2010.  No doubt the high number of first time home buyers in 2010 was a result of the first time home buyer tax credit.  To me, even 37% is a very high percentage.  I know that personally, I worked with a number of first time home buyers in Yardley and Newtown  in 2011.

• The typical buyer was 45 years old, which was a jump from 39 years old, in 2010

• The 2010 median household income of buyers was $80,900.   Median income was $62,400 for first time home buyers, and $96,600 for repeat buyers.

• 64% of recent home buyers were married couples, which was the highest percentage since 2001.  18% of recent home buyers were single females, which was the lowest share since 2004.  Not exactly sure why that was the case.

• For 27% of recent home buyers, the primary reason that they bought, was simply a desire to own a home!

Sellers

• The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years.  The median tenure has increased in recent years.  As recently as 2007, it was six years.

• 87% of sellers used a realtor when selling.  (I love that statistic!)

• Recent sellers sold for 95%of the listing price, and 61% reported that they reduced the price at least once.

• 41% of sellers offered incentives to attract buyers, most often offering home warranties and help with closing costs.

The entire buyer and seller report is almost 200 pages, and includes interesting charts and graphs.  I can email the report, if anyone is interested in seeing it.

I like to look at the report and see how the national experiences of buyers and sellers, compares with what I find in my real estate business in Yardley, Newtown and Bucks County.  I will talk about the report in future posts, but it is always important for me to emphasize that, especially in our area, real estate is moving.  I have had recent listings that have sold within a very short period of time, and the market is active.

If you would like to see the home buyer and seller report, please email me at Marty@MartinMillner.com.

Many folks believe that very few houses are selling, and that almost no one can get a mortgage. Along with

A few weeks ago, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Homes Sales Report. According to the report there are, on average, 12,109 homes selling in the United States EACH and EVERY DAY! That means that approximately 12,000 houses sold yesterday, approximately 12,000 will sell today and approximately 12,000 will sell tomorrow. So the thinking that homes aren’t selling just isn’t true.

Another interesting fact in the report was that 72% of these transactions were accompanied by a mortgage. That means that approximately 8,719 people qualify for a mortgage on a daily basis in this country.

There are over 12,000 homes sold and over 8,000 mortgages granted every day. The real estate market is doing better than many believe.

If you’d like more facts and figures, or information about buying or selling a home in Yardley, give me a call – I’d love to talk with you!

Hard to believe that we are just a week away from Christmas!

From a Yardley real estate perspective, we are now 11 months into data for 2011. Let’s see where we are, both with Yardley real estate and Bucks County real estate.

Bucks County real estate

Units Sold: Looking at numbers for all of Bucks County, the number of units sold this year is about 4% lower than a year ago at this time. For those who suggest that no real estate sells in Bucks County, although the number of houses sold is a bit lower, there have been 4,052 homes that have closed through November this year!

Pricing: The average price of a home for sale in Bucks County is down by 5.5% from last year at the same time.

Pending Sales: This is the best forward indicator of real estate activity, and the number of pending sales has trended up for several months.

Inventory: This is also an extremely important metric, when considering Bucks County real estate market conditions. The number of houses for sale in Bucks County is 7% less this month than last month, and more than 11% lower than it was at the same time last year! This still represents more than 11 months of inventory in Bucks County. We consider a market to be balanced when there is about a six month inventory, so you can see that factors are still favoring buyers. It is important to note, that the average days on market has also increased this year, from 88 to 101.

Observations for Bucks County real estate market

My observation from all of these statistics is that the market, while still favoring buyers, has stabilized a bit in Bucks County. I posted an article the other day comparing distressed and non-distressed real estate sales. In the article, I pointed out that both locally and nationally, prices of non-distressed properties appear to have stabilized. In looking at Bucks County real estate, it is important to note that we have far fewer distressed property sales than in many other parts of the country. Houses can and will sell, if they are priced correctly, marketed properly, and if appropriate steps are taken to ensure that they show as well as possible.

Yardley Real Estate Information

As I have pointed out many times in the past, real estate markets are very local, often varying from neighborhood to neighborhood. Let’s look at what is happening in the Yardley and Lower Makefield Township real estate market.

Inventory

• Inventory of homes Nov 2011 204
• Inventory of homes Oct 2011 226
• Inventory of homes Nov 2010 194

Although inventory is a bit less this month, compared with last month, it is higher by almost 10% from the same time last year. This is a bit of a contrast to the County as a whole.

Pricing

• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2011 489,000
• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2010 499,000

Asking price of a house for sale in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township is about 2% lower this year.

Units sold

• 261 homes sold through November this year
• 291 homes sold at the same time last year

It is also interesting to note that homes selling this year sold at an average of 92% of the list price, while they sold at an average of 93% of list price last year. Please note that when comparing the sold price to list price, we use the original asking price, where the price is reduced.

There is currently about a nine month inventory of homes for sale in Yardley. This is actually a bit better than for all of Bucks County.

Observations

There is no question that, looking at all of this information, it is still a buyers market. However, whether you are a buyer, seller, or just curious about real estate in Bucks County, or Yardley, houses are selling. Interest rates are at historic lows. Despite public perception, buyers are getting mortgages, and real estate is selling. If you are a potential seller, it is critical that you be realistic about pricing. It has never been more important to make sure that your house shows as well as it possibly can, and that it is marketed properly and thoroughly. I have a real sense that, especially for non-distressed homes, the market is a bit more stable right now, than it has been in quite a while.

From a Bucks County perspective, why is this article so interesting?

There are always articles written that talk about how bad the real estate market is.  I have written pretty extensively about the real estate market in and around Yardley and Newtown, and all over Bucks County.  I have pointed out on numerous occasions, that our market is nowhere near as dire, as in other parts of the country, like Arizona, Florida, etc.

This Journal article is the first article that I have seen that makes a distinction between distressed sales, and non-distressed sales.  I think this could be a critically important distinction, because, as the article points out, according to CoreLogic, an important emerging trend is that home prices are actually stabilizing after excluding distressed sales.  If you are not familiar with the term, “distressed sale”, it essentially refers to bank owned properties, and/or short sales, etc.

It is clear, according to the statistics, that prices of non-distressed properties are actually stabilizing, even as the prices of distressed properties are still falling.

The reason this becomes so important to the real estate market in Bucks County, is because for Bucks County real estate, the percentage of distressed property sales, is very significantly lower than the national average.  In fact, for all of Bucks County, the percentage of distressed property sales is about 13% or so, while the national percentage is 28 to 30%.  I would actually suggest that in the Yardley, Newtown, Washington Crossing real estate market, that percentage is even lower.

In fact, many people are really surprised to learn that for the entire real estate market in Bucks County, following the height of the market, which was in 2007, prices fell by 6.7% in 2008, they dropped by 6.8% in 2009 and believe it or not, they actually went up by 4.3% in 2010.  Those statistics are based on the change in the average sold price, each year.

So, if you live in or are interested in real estate in Bucks County, spread the word!

Newtown house inventory vs days on the market

We are definitely in the dog days of summer, here in Bucks County.

I just got back from a very nice, long weekend in Chicago. 

For today’s post, lets look at a couple of charts that show inventory and average days on the market for homes in Yardley and Newtown.

What do the charts show?

Basically, in both Newtown and Yardley, the average days on the market has been trending lower, for the past 90 days.

In Yardley, the number of houses on the market seems to have peaked in early July, and is now trending lower.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the fall, which contrary to what a lot of people think, is actually the second busiest real estate time of the year, after the spring market.

In Newtown, inventory appears to still be on the upward trend. 

I suspect, in both Yardley and Newtown, we are seeing homes coming on the market, but there are still not a great deal of buyers.  Becuase of the new listings, the average days on the market, is a bit lower.  This all translates to market dynamics that still favor buyers.

Although interest rates are at unbelievably low rates, and show no signs of increasing in the near future,  in my view, the pace of sales has slowed down since the spring, which is normal, for this time of the year.

Yardley homes on the market vs days on the market

So, if you are looking to sell, price your home realistically.  Houses are selling, but only those that are priced competitively.

Buyers, lots of choices, and lots of competition for your dollars.

If you need an evaluation of the value of your home, please call me at 215-519-1399.

Real estate is, and always has been, local.  It is local, sometimes even down to neighborhood by neighborhood.

I always track statistical information about real estate in Yardley, Newtown, Lower Makefield Township, Upper Makefield Township, and many of the communities that I serve. 

People ask me every single day, how is the market?  I can answer that question, based on how carefully I track statistics, as well as from my own personal experiences in representing buyers and sellers.

So, here is a brief look at a couple of interesting real estate charts, for Yardley and Newtown.

If you look at the charts, you will see that after falling a bit, during the 90 day review period, inventory levels are increasing in both Yardley and Newtown.  As you would expect, with more houses on the market, it is taking longer to sell.  Average days on the market is also increasing. 

Houses can and do sell.  It is all about the price.  These charts make a compelling case for wanting to be sure that if you are interested in selling, you must price your house correctly. 

If you have questions, please feel free to contact me.

Inventory and days on the market for 19067

For those not familiar with what a short sale is, a short sale basically happens when a seller owes more on a house, than what the house is worth.  For example, if a seller in Yardley, owes 300,000 on their mortgage, and the house is worth 250,000, the mortgage on the house can not be satisfied with the sale price.  The seller would have to bring money to closing, in order to sell the house.  If the seller did not have the resources to do that, the only way the house could be sold, is through a, “short sale”.   The bank would have to agree to accept less than the full amount owed on the mortgage.

In the markets that I focus on in Bucks County,  we have fewer distressed property sales, than in many parts of the country.

However, I do encounter short sales, frequently. 

In general, working with banks on short sales, has been extremely frustrating.  As a generalization, the banks often take an unreasonable amount of time to make a decision.  In many cases, the decisions they make, don’t make sense, from a  market perspective.  I had a client make an offer on a short sale, many months ago, on a house in Yardley Boro, and the bank refused to neogtiate the offer.  The house sat on the markaet for many more months, and the bank eventually sold the house for about 50,000 less than what they turned down! 

For the average buyer, buying short sale properties, is usually extremely stressful.  As I mentioned earlier, the process often takes longer.  In addition, the banks generally sell the house in its current condition, which means that a buyer can make the sale contingent on a home inspection, but the bank will not agree to fix anything.

I have been amazed at how dificult most banks make it, to deal with short sales.

This video outlines some new, federal guidelines on short sales, that will take effect in April. 

I wonder if this will help?