Shadow Inventory
Definition of ‘Shadow Inventory’
A term that refers to real estate properties that are either in foreclosure and have not yet been sold or homes that owners are delaying putting on the market until prices improve. Shadow inventory can create uncertainty about the best time to sell (for owners) and when a local market can expect full recovery. Also, shadow inventory typically causes reported data on housing inventory to understate the actual number of inventory in the market.
Investopedia explains ‘Shadow Inventory’
With the unprecedented number of foreclosures stemming from the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2007-2008 and the overall housing market collapse during that crisis, lenders were left with significant real estate holdings. Many lenders were slow to put their inventory up for sale for fear of flooding the market and further driving down prices, which would in turn lower their potential ROI.
The utterance of the term “shadow inventory” can conjure up fear, uncertainty and mystery about the future of the housing market.
First coined to describe the volume of lender-repossessed properties that haven’t yet reached the market as REOs (bank-owned listings), the term has been expanded by some to include homes in a foreclosure process and even those with delinquent loans that haven’t yet entered the foreclosure process.
These various definitions have added to the confusion about its potential threat to the housing market and economy as a whole.
One of the great economic success stories of 2012 was that the housing market finally found a bottom, and even began to show signs of a nascent recovery. But even as positive data on the real estate market began to trickle in early last year, not everyone was convinced. The main reason for skepticism were millions of homes that had not yet hit the market, but probably would soon — either because they were already inforeclosure or because the homeowners were so far behind on payments that foreclosures were imminent. These properties, which last year were estimated to range anywhere from 3 million to 10 million in number, were dubbed the “shadow inventory” of homes.
The reason the shadow inventory was thought to be bad news for the housing market was that when these homes finally did go up for sale, they would overwhelm the demand for housing, which had slowed in recent years due to the poor economy and sluggish population growth. But a recent report from analytics firm CoreLogic says that the shadow inventory as of October 2012 has fallen to 2.3 million, a 12.3% drop year-over-year. In other words, this catalog of homes has been reduced significantly without the detrimental effect on nationwide home prices that some had feared. So what happened, and why has the dreaded shadow inventory not yet sunk the convalescent U.S. housing market? I asked Sam Khater, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, and he outlined three key reasons:
Investors Got in on the Game
The housing recovery was prevented for so long in part because of tight credit standards and because so many homeowners owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. This left many homeowners unable to take advantage of increasingly cheap prices. But by 2012, home prices had fell so far that it became lucrative for investors — either investment vehicles like real estate investment trusts or individual investors looking to earn extra income as landlords — to snap up real estate at historically low prices. Khater says the speed and enthusiasm with which investors bought these properties was a bit of a surprise, and one of the main reasons why the market was able to work off a significant chunk of shadow inventory without it depressing home prices.
Lenders Ramped Up Principal Forgiveness
When a homeowner cannot repay his mortgage, mortgage lenders often end up losing a lot of money even after they repossesses and resell the home. Homes sold after foreclosure sell for a deep discount, and going through foreclosure proceedings is very costly for banks as they must continue to pay taxes and upkeep costs while the process unfolds. So modifying a delinquent loan so the borrowers can remain in the home, even if it means forgiving principal, can sometimes make sense for all parties involved.
The problem is that the securitization of home loans, whereby loans are pooled and sliced up into different payment “tranches,” or bundles, made it so that there wasn’t one specific investor who could decide to modify a loan. And the fight over who would bear the losses when a mortgage was modified prevented much modification from happening at all.
Beginning with the $25 billion mortgage settlement between the nation’s largest mortgage servicers and states attorneys general, however, the tide began to shift a bit. Banks have been forced, because of the terms of that settlement, to engage in principal-reducing mortgage modifications, which have helped keep homeowners out of foreclosure and, thereby, their homes off the market. According to a recent report from the OCC the share of loan modifications made by servicers in the third quarter of 2012 that include principal reduction have risen 110.6% when compared to the similar period in 2011.
Many Homeowners Remain Underwater
Even with the improving housing market, many homeowners remain underwater. Paradoxically, this has buttressed the housing market of late, as it keeps these homeowners from putting their property on the market. These homeowners being locked out of the market, combined with avid interest from investors in cheap residential real estate, has led to the amount of homes for sale being historically very low. And when supply is restrained, prices go up. As prices rise, more homeowners will get out from their underwater mortgages. “This dynamic will unlock some borrowers, but it won’t lead to a flood of new homes on the market,” Khater says. “It’ll be more of a slight opening of the spigot.”
All this goes to show that predicting the movement of large, complex markets like housing can be difficult even for experts who make a living doing just that. A year ago, many smart people took a look at the inventory waiting on the sidelines, and couldn’t imagine the market being able to absorb it. The fact that lenders are more aggressively modifying mortgages and a new investor class has stepped up to take advantage of cheap prices shows that even the savviest of analysts can be caught off guard by new trends.
The number of homes in “shadow inventory” dropped from 2.6 million in October 2011 to 2.3 million in October 2012, according to a new report from CoreLogic.
Shadow inventory refers to the supply of homes that are in foreclosure or have seriously delinquent mortgages but are not yet on the market.
Many housing experts once predicted that the shadow inventory would cause overall inventories to skyrocket and place downward pressure on home prices. Yet an increase in short sales and loan modifications have helped to lessen the impact, analysts say.
“The size of the shadow inventory continues to shrink from peak levels in terms of numbers of units and the dollars they represent,” says Anand Nallathambi, president of CoreLogic. “We expect a gradual and progressive contraction in the shadow inventory in 2013 as investors continue to snap up foreclosed and REO properties and the broader recovery in housing market fundamentals takes hold.”
A new report from CoreLogic shows that the shadow inventory of homes fell 12.3 percent in October from a year ago.
Also known as pending supply, shadow inventory represents the houses that are intended for sale but aren’t yet on the market.
There are 2.3 million units in the shadows, which represent a seven month supply.
“The size of the shadow inventory continues to shrink from peak levels in terms of numbers of units and the dollars they represent,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect a gradual and progressive contraction in the shadow inventory in 2013 as investors continue to snap up foreclosed and REO properties and the broader recovery in housing market fundamentals takes hold.”
Here are some key points from the report.
- As of October 2012, shadow inventory fell to 2.3 million units, or seven months’ supply, and represented 85 percent of the 2.7 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or in REO.
- Of the 2.3 million properties currently in the shadow inventory (Figures 1 and 2), 1.04 million units are seriously delinquent (3.3 months’ supply), 903,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (2.8 months’ supply) and 354,000 are already in REO (1.1 months’ supply).
- As of October 2012, the dollar volume of shadow inventory was $376 billion, down from $399 billion a year ago.
- Over the three months ending in October 2012, serious delinquencies, which are the main driver of the shadow inventory, declined the most in Arizona (13.3 percent), California (9.7 percent), Michigan (6.8 percent), Colorado (6.8 percent) and Wyoming (5.9 percent).
- As of October 2012, Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey make up 45 percent of the 2.7 million properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or in REO. In October 2011, these same states made up 51.3 percent of all the distressed mortgages that were at least 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
Buying HUD Homes
HUD (Housing and Urban Development) is the federal agency that takes responsibility for FHA backed loans that go wrong… A HUD home is a 1-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD when a loan backed by FHA, goes into foreclosure.
Here are some specifics about the process of buying a HUD home:
- HUD becomes the property owner and offers the home for sale to recover the loss on the foreclosure claim.
- HUD homes are appraised and then priced at fair market value for their area. The homes are sold “as is”, but the price has generally been adjusted down to reflect repairs that the homeowner will have to make.
- HUD homes are sold using a bidding process. There is an offer period, during which, sealed bids are accepted from your agent. Once the offer period closes, all bids are opened, and HUD will generally accept the highest bid, or the bid that brings them the highest net.
- If your bid is accepted, your agent will be notified within a couple of days. You will be given a settlement date – usually 30-60 days from the date of the accepted contract.
- If no one makes an offer for a HUD home within a certain amount of time, HUD will lower the price. The price will continue to drop until an offer is made and accepted.
So, what is the best way to safely purchase a HUD home?
- Find the right real estate agent. Only agents who are registered with HUD may represent home buyers and investors in the purchase of a HUD home. The best way to track down the right agent is to go through the website that lists HUD homes in your area, and determine which agent has the most winning bids.
- Be sure to inspect the property before making an offer. The listing agent has access to the property and can show it to you.
- Make an offer based on the process above
- Get your financing in order so you can close in a timely fashion. It could be as soon as 30 days from acceptance date. It would really be in your best interest to secure financing before you make an offer.
Buying a home in Bucks County after Foreclosure or Short Sale
Buying a home in Bucks County after Foreclosure or Short Sale
The past 5-7 years have displaced a lot of homeowners. When the Real Estate market crashed, many people were left way underwater on their homes, and were forced to Short Sell them. Additionally, when the economy tanked right alongside the Real Estate market, another large group of people lost their homes to foreclosure.
Both of these circumstances put black marks on credit reports, leaving these people unable to buy a new home.
So, the big question out there right now is – when can people buy homes and get mortgages after a short sale or foreclosure appears on their credit report?
In looking at foreclosures and time to buy, it can differ if there are extenuating circumstances that led to the foreclosure – such as a death in the family, illness, or an accident resulting in serious injury. In these cases the waiting period can be less.
- Normally to buy after a foreclosure – 5-7 years
- With extenuating circumstances – 3-7 years
- Buying after a short sale – generally 2 years
All of this is becoming relevant right now because a large percentage of people who lost homes, have worked their way through the waiting period and are ready and able to buy again.
It is important for those who go through a Short Sale or Foreclosure to maintain pristine credit while they wait to be able to buy again. Lending guidelines have tightened – the lenders will require a strong credit score with the borrowers having paid all their bills on time.
As these potential homebuyers are moving back into the Bucks County Real Estate market, housing prices are getting ready to rise, and mortgage rates are still low. It’s a great time to buy Real Estate in Bucks County.
Feel free to contact me if you are looking for a new home in 2013.
There are a lot of great homes in Yardley, Newtown and all of Bucks County.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Want to buy distressed homes in Lower Makefield Township?
According to October data from foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 20th straight month last month as 1 in every 389 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.
The generic term “foreclosure filing” is defined to include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. Versus the month prior, filings fell 4 percent, and as compared to October 2009, filings were essentially the same.
As usual, foreclosure density varied by region last month, with just 5 states accounting for close to half of the nation’s repossessed homes.
- California : 14.8 percent of all bank repossessions
- Florida : 14.4 percent of all bank repossessions
- Michigan : 7.3 percent of all bank repossessions
- Texas : 6.6 percent of all bank repossessions
- Arizona : 6.0 percent of all bank repossessions
The other 45 states accounted for the remaining half.
It reminds us that, what I have been pointing for a while, now, and that is, that all real estate is local. It can even vary neighborhood by neighborhood!
Having said that, there is no doubt, that we have seen more distressed property activity in Lower Makefield Township, and Yardley, than I have ever seen since I have been in realestate. For today’s Lower Makefield Township home buyers, though, foreclosures can represent an interesting opportunity.
Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes and it’s one of the reasons why distressed home sales now represent 35 percent of all home resales. But don’t confuse less expensive for less costly. Foreclosed homes may also be in various stages of disrepair. Getting them into living condition can be expensive. Often times the banks are extremely difficult to deal with, and can take months and months to make a decision on offers. Further, generally speaking, the banks who own properties, will not consider doing any repairs that may be necessary. The prospective buyer, is often on their own when it comes to taking on future repairs that are needed. It is critically important to understand the process, if you are considering buying a foreclosure or even a property that is in short sale.
Your best real estate “deal”, therefore, may be that non-distressed home that’s in sound, move-in ready condition.
If you’re buying foreclosures — or even just thinking about it — make sure you talk with a real estate agent first. Buying distressed property is different from the “typical” home purchase. You’ll want somebody experienced in your corner, who can explain clearly, what you are likely to encounter.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Foreclosure Activity By Metro Area, Q3 2010
Foreclosures are a big part of the housing market, with distressed properties accounting for 35 percent of all home resales last month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
But for as common as foreclosures can be, they remain a localized concern. Data from foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac shows that more than half of last quarter’s foreclosures came from just 19 metropolitan areas, with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale are accountable for the largest number of filings.
A “foreclosure filing” is defined as a default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.
On a per-household basis last quarter, the Las Vegas area was hardest hit. 1 in every 25 households received some form of foreclosure notice.
The RealtyTrac report features other interesting figures, too:
- California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada account for the top 10, and19 of the top 20 metro areas for foreclosures
- Compared to Q3 2009, foreclosure activity dropped in 72 metro areas, including No. 2 Cape Coral/Fort Myers, FL
- Foreclosure activity dropped 1 percent from Q3 2009 in the nation’s 20 most-populated cities
And, despite a 27 percent increase in foreclosures from the second quarter, Utica/Rome, NY posted the lowest foreclosure rate in the nation — 1 for every 8,003 households. The next closest city, Charleston, WV, posted 1 for every 2,600 households, by comparison.
Foreclosures, like everything in real estate, are local. And buying them is “different” from buying a typical home resale. If you’re planning to buy a foreclosed home, speak with a real estate agent with specific experience with homes in foreclosure. Professional advice is helpful.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Foreclosure update for Yardley, Newtown & Bucks County.
The number of foreclosure filings rose 3 percent in September, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The term “foreclosure filing” is a catch-all word for housing, comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.
September marked the 19th straight month that the number of filings topped 300,000, and the first month in which 100,000 repossessions were logged.
As usual, a small number of states dominated the national foreclosure figures, accounting for more than half of all repossessions.
- California : 17% of all repossessions
- Florida : 13% of all repossessions
- Michigan : 7% of all repossessions
- Arizona : 7% of all repossessions
- Texas : 5% of all repossessions
- Georgia : 5% of all repossessions
Thankfully for home sellers, mortgage servicers appear to be metering the pace at these newly bank-owned homes are made available to the public. RealtyTrac notes that, in doing so, servicers prevent “the further erosion of home prices”.
That said, distressed properties still sell at a steep discount.
In the second quarter of 2010, the average sale price of homes in the foreclosure process was 26 percent lower than the average sale price of homes not in the foreclosure process. It’s no surprise, therefore, that, based on RealtyTrac’s preliminary data, 31 percent of all homes sold in September were “distressed”.
There’s lot of good deals out there, in other words, but they come with certain risks.
Buying a foreclosed home is not the same as buying a non-foreclosed home. Specifically, you’re buying from a corporation and not from a “person”. Contracts may vary, and so may terms.
There is currently a great deal of uncertainty about what is going to happen with regards to homes that are going into foreclosure, and even homes that have recently been through foreclosure. I have read articles recently, in both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, suggesting that there may be home owners who lost homes to foreclosure, who may look into trying to re-claim their home, in light of the current situation, with every state in the country looking into the documentation issues relating to foreclosures.
The heavy concentration of foreclosures in 6 states, highlights the point I have been making for a while, relative to our real estate market in Yardley, Newtown and all over Bucks County, which is that our market is not dominated by distressed property sales. Yes there are more of those than in the past, but for most of our local markets, distressed properties do not dominate the market.
If you have questions or thoughts about buying distressed properties, please let me know.
Continue Reading > Add a Comment |Chat With Marty