According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, “Signs of slowing economic growth and inflation remaining subdued allowed yields on Treasury bonds to ease somewhat and brought most mortgage rates to new all-time record lows this week.”

The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.84%, down from 3.88% last week. 15-year rates averaged 3.07%, down from 3.12% last week. Freddie Mac has been keeping records of interest rates since its inception in 1970. See Freddie Mac’s site for more interest rate history.

What it Means to Bucks County

As I have been observing for the past few months, the real estate market in Yardley & Newtown and all over Bucks County has experienced the most active spring market, especially for sellers, in years.

Correctly priced houses are selling much quicker than they have in the past few years, and we have even seen a few multiple offer situations.

Everyone knows that interest rates have been incredibly low, for some time.  The recent announcement by Freddie Mac, confirms exactly how low, historically, interest rates are.

I believe that one of the factors that may be helping the increase in activity this spring, is that buyers are slowing coming to the realization that interest rates will not stay at this level forever.  I think that we are seeing a bit of an increase in buyer motivation, because many buyers do not want to miss this incredibly opportunity to take advantage of lower home values, along with incredibly low interest rates.

I also believe that many sellers are afraid of the market, because of all of the negative publicity, so sellers who can avoid selling in the current market environment are not putting their houses on the market. So in many cases we see lower inventory, along with increased demand.

This is not to suggest that we are back to the double digit, crazy days of real estate.  I am suggesting that the dynamics in the Yardley, Newtown and Bucks County real estate market are much more balanced today than they have been in years.

So what is happening in real estate in Bucks County, and Yardley?

First quarter real estate market results are in, so lets take a look at what is happening.

First, looking at Bucks County real estate, what is really striking, is that the number of houses for sale, was more than 7% lower at the end of March this year, than last year at the same time.

I have blogged a couple of times recently, about the changing dynamics in the market.  It seems as though more houses are selling faster than they were last year, and based on the decrease in inventory levels, that makes sense.

The other extremely striking statistic, in the Bucks County real estate market, is in pending sales.  Pending sales represent homes where the seller has accepted an offer, but the house is waiting for closing.  Pending sales in Bucks County were up by an incredible 26% at the end of March, compared with last year.

I am not quite sure what to make of that number, yet.  I sense that buyers are more motivated, and more buyers are coming to the realization that 4% interest rates will not be around forever.

Check the chart, for Bucks County real estate details.

Bucks County real estate market in a shapshot

Yardley Real Estate

In the Yardley, Lower Makefield Township real estate market, the number of homes on the market is actually about 2% higher at the end of March than it was last year at the same time.

Inventory was up by almost 12% from the end of February, which is to be expected, as we entered the spring market.

I think that there are still an abundance of houses in Yardley that have been on the market for a long time, because they are overpriced, given current market conditions.  Even though inventory levels are higher, there is definitely more activity in the real estate market right now.

It is also interesting to note that the average price of a house on the market in Lower Makefield Township was $476,000 thie year, compared with $481,000 last year.

In addition to that, it may surprise people to know that the average price of a home sold in 2011, increased slightly in 2011, and is up by 5% this year, so far.

In Lower Makefield Township, there still is about an 8 month inventory supply, which indicates that factors are still favorable for buyers.  We consider the real estate market to be balanced, when there is about a 6 month supply of homes on the market.

Yardley real estate appreciation chart

In summary, the real estate market in Bucks County, and especially in the Yardley-Newtown areas, is showing the most encouraging signs that I have seen in about 4 years.  There are still homes that have been on the market for months and months, because they are overpriced.  However, homes that come on the market that are priced realistically, based on current market conditions, are selling much fast than they have at any point in the past 4 years.  If you are getting ready to put your house on the market, please ask me for a copy of my ebook, 450 ideas to help get your home sold quickly.  Send me your email, and I will email it to you.  My email is: Marty@MartinMillner.com.

Contrary to what the press would have us all believe, people actually bought and sold houses in 2011! NAR interviews literally thousands of home buyers and sellers every year, and generates a very comprehensive review of the prior year in real estate.  What did we see in 2011?

Buyers

• 37% of recent home buyers were first time home buyers.  This represented a drop from 50% in 2010.  No doubt the high number of first time home buyers in 2010 was a result of the first time home buyer tax credit.  To me, even 37% is a very high percentage.  I know that personally, I worked with a number of first time home buyers in Yardley and Newtown  in 2011.

• The typical buyer was 45 years old, which was a jump from 39 years old, in 2010

• The 2010 median household income of buyers was $80,900.   Median income was $62,400 for first time home buyers, and $96,600 for repeat buyers.

• 64% of recent home buyers were married couples, which was the highest percentage since 2001.  18% of recent home buyers were single females, which was the lowest share since 2004.  Not exactly sure why that was the case.

• For 27% of recent home buyers, the primary reason that they bought, was simply a desire to own a home!

Sellers

• The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years.  The median tenure has increased in recent years.  As recently as 2007, it was six years.

• 87% of sellers used a realtor when selling.  (I love that statistic!)

• Recent sellers sold for 95%of the listing price, and 61% reported that they reduced the price at least once.

• 41% of sellers offered incentives to attract buyers, most often offering home warranties and help with closing costs.

The entire buyer and seller report is almost 200 pages, and includes interesting charts and graphs.  I can email the report, if anyone is interested in seeing it.

I like to look at the report and see how the national experiences of buyers and sellers, compares with what I find in my real estate business in Yardley, Newtown and Bucks County.  I will talk about the report in future posts, but it is always important for me to emphasize that, especially in our area, real estate is moving.  I have had recent listings that have sold within a very short period of time, and the market is active.

If you would like to see the home buyer and seller report, please email me at Marty@MartinMillner.com.

Time to take a look at what happened in our real estate market in Bucks County and Yardley in 2011.

As noted on the Bucks County real estate chart below, we can see that the number of houses sold in all of Bucks County was 3% less than the number of houses sold in 2010.  (There were still 4423 homes sold in Bucks County in 2011).  The number of homes sold in December of 2011 though, was 11.6% higher than in December of 2010.  This was the sixth consecutive month that unit sales in the County were higher than the previous year.

Prices of homes sold in 2011, in Bucks County, fell by 5.5%.  As you will see in the Yardley data, home prices in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township did better than that in 2011.

Pending sales remained about the same as they were a year ago at the same time.

Bucks County real estate inventory is 9.2% less than it was a year ago, and more than 10% than it was in November  of 2011.

Finally, the average listing price of a home for sale in Bucks County, is down by 3.5% from a year ago at this time.

What does this all mean?  Specifically for Lower Makefield Township, there is now a 7.2 month inventory supply.  We consider a market to be balanced, when inventory is about 6 months.  It seems as though in the Yardley area, we are getting closer to balanced market conditions.   Average days on the market is 87 right now, compared with 72 last year.  Buyers are still negotiating an average of 8% discount from original asking price.

As I suggest on a regular basis, market conditions demand that sellers who are serious about selling, be realistic in their asking price. I see it over and over again, that over priced homes, help the realistic sellers get their home sold!

Hard to believe that we are just a week away from Christmas!

From a Yardley real estate perspective, we are now 11 months into data for 2011. Let’s see where we are, both with Yardley real estate and Bucks County real estate.

Bucks County real estate

Units Sold: Looking at numbers for all of Bucks County, the number of units sold this year is about 4% lower than a year ago at this time. For those who suggest that no real estate sells in Bucks County, although the number of houses sold is a bit lower, there have been 4,052 homes that have closed through November this year!

Pricing: The average price of a home for sale in Bucks County is down by 5.5% from last year at the same time.

Pending Sales: This is the best forward indicator of real estate activity, and the number of pending sales has trended up for several months.

Inventory: This is also an extremely important metric, when considering Bucks County real estate market conditions. The number of houses for sale in Bucks County is 7% less this month than last month, and more than 11% lower than it was at the same time last year! This still represents more than 11 months of inventory in Bucks County. We consider a market to be balanced when there is about a six month inventory, so you can see that factors are still favoring buyers. It is important to note, that the average days on market has also increased this year, from 88 to 101.

Observations for Bucks County real estate market

My observation from all of these statistics is that the market, while still favoring buyers, has stabilized a bit in Bucks County. I posted an article the other day comparing distressed and non-distressed real estate sales. In the article, I pointed out that both locally and nationally, prices of non-distressed properties appear to have stabilized. In looking at Bucks County real estate, it is important to note that we have far fewer distressed property sales than in many other parts of the country. Houses can and will sell, if they are priced correctly, marketed properly, and if appropriate steps are taken to ensure that they show as well as possible.

Yardley Real Estate Information

As I have pointed out many times in the past, real estate markets are very local, often varying from neighborhood to neighborhood. Let’s look at what is happening in the Yardley and Lower Makefield Township real estate market.

Inventory

• Inventory of homes Nov 2011 204
• Inventory of homes Oct 2011 226
• Inventory of homes Nov 2010 194

Although inventory is a bit less this month, compared with last month, it is higher by almost 10% from the same time last year. This is a bit of a contrast to the County as a whole.

Pricing

• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2011 489,000
• Average price of a home for sale Nov 2010 499,000

Asking price of a house for sale in Yardley/Lower Makefield Township is about 2% lower this year.

Units sold

• 261 homes sold through November this year
• 291 homes sold at the same time last year

It is also interesting to note that homes selling this year sold at an average of 92% of the list price, while they sold at an average of 93% of list price last year. Please note that when comparing the sold price to list price, we use the original asking price, where the price is reduced.

There is currently about a nine month inventory of homes for sale in Yardley. This is actually a bit better than for all of Bucks County.

Observations

There is no question that, looking at all of this information, it is still a buyers market. However, whether you are a buyer, seller, or just curious about real estate in Bucks County, or Yardley, houses are selling. Interest rates are at historic lows. Despite public perception, buyers are getting mortgages, and real estate is selling. If you are a potential seller, it is critical that you be realistic about pricing. It has never been more important to make sure that your house shows as well as it possibly can, and that it is marketed properly and thoroughly. I have a real sense that, especially for non-distressed homes, the market is a bit more stable right now, than it has been in quite a while.

I am also including with this post an appreciation (or depreciation) chart for Lower Makefield Township housing, starting with the year 2000. If you follow the numbers, you will see that our area has lost about 15% of value since the height of the market. The real estate market in virtually all of Bucks County has held up considerably better than many other parts of the country.

Real Estate Update for Yardley/Lower Makefield Township.

Inventory:

• Houses for sale at the end of September 2011 246
• Houses for sale at the end of August 2011 254
• Houses for sale at the end of September 2010 214

Inventory is up by about 15% from last year at the same time.

Pricing:

• Average price of a home on the market September 2011 $475,000
• Average price of a home on the market September 2010 $521,000

Based on average pricing, the asking price of a house on the market in Lower Makefield Township, is down by almost 9%. Could sellers be getting a bit more realistic?

Units Sold:

• The number of homes sold, year to date in Lower Makefield Township, through September 2011 was 222
• The number of homes sold, year to date in Lower Makefield Township, through September 2010 was 253

Buyers are getting approximately 8% off of the original asking price, on average. This is very slightly higher than last year at the same time. Most importantly, there is an 11-month supply of houses on the market in Yardley, and the average days on the market has increased, as well. All of these factors show that the market is still weighted in favor of buyers.

One statistic that was interesting to note, though, is the number of pending real estate transactions for all of Bucks County, was up by more than 18% at the end of September, compared with the same time last year.  That is the best forward-looking trend line. A pending sale means that the seller has accepted an offer, but the house has not yet gone to closing. I would expect to see this reflected in the number of houses in Bucks County that go to closing over the next few months.

Again, please keep in mind that houses are bought and sold every day of the week. There are buyers looking, and if you are considering buying, there are absolutely great opportunities in the market right now. You can reach me at 215-519-1399 to get any additional information.

Housing appreciation schedule for Lower Makefield Township

According to the Friends of the Delaware Canal website, http://www.fodc.org, in the most productive years of canal use (just prior to the Civil War), over 3,000 mule drawn boats traveled up and down the canal route, carrying over a million tons of coal a year! If you aren’t familiar with this wonderful website, you should definitely check it out. It is full of interesting history, charts and photos about the Canal.

The towpath offers a wonderful opportunity for area residents and visitors to walk, run, bike, stroll, fish or just relax along the miles and miles of Canal. You can access the towpath at various points throughout Lower Makefield, Yardley, Upper Makefield and New Hope. It is fun to bike on the towpath from Yardley to New Hope.

With the leaves changing, it is a great season to observe spectacular colors along the Canal. If you aren’t familiar with the Canal and the towpath, I highly recommend checking out the Friends of the Delaware Canal website, and then taking advantage of this wonderful local resource.

The table below, tracks very specific year to year appreciation, along with units sold, in various municipalities in Bucks County.  It is interesting to see, that the markets all are different.  For example, looking at Lower Makefield Township, prices declined by 6.7% in 2009, while in Newtown Township, prices dropped by 3.7% in 2009.

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For all of Bucks County, prices dropped by 6.8% in 2009. 

These statistics are based on houses that sold, and they include all homes other than condominiums. 

In future posts, I will be taking an in depth look, at market statistics, in the Yardley, Newtown, Upper Makefield, Buckingham, and Solebury areas.

If you have any questions, or would like any clarification of this information, please contact me.

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